Cleveland Guardians’ Triston McKenzie’s Margin For Error Is Thinner Than He Is

The best pitcher on the Cleveland Guardians is the skinniest and unluckiest pitcher on the Guardians’ staff. He’s 6-foot-5, 165-pound Triston McKenzie, who, on a grossly under-supported starting rotation is the most under-supported of all.

The youngest pitcher in the rotation – he’s 24, the other four starters are all 27 – had another typical outing Sunday afternoon in Detroit. McKenzie pitched great, but lost. He pitched into the eighth inning, allowing just two runs on four hits, with eight strikeouts and one walk.

But he and the Guardians still lost to the Tigers 2-1.

McKenzie’s 2.65 ERA is by far the best ERA among Cleveland’s starters. But with a record of 3-4 he is tied for the most losses of any Guardians pitcher. Adding to his frustration is that McKenzie’s record could easily be 7-0.

The scores of the four games McKenzie lost are: 3-1, 4-1, 3-1, and Sunday’s 2-1 loss in Detroit. He’s been almost unhittable this season – he leads the American League with an average of 5.47 hits allowed per nine innings – but he’s been routinely beatable because Cleveland’s lineup isn’t providing much support offensively.

In McKenzie’s four losses he’s held his opponents to a combined .190 batting average. In his nine starts overall he has held opposing hitters to a .207 batting average. Left-handed hitters are hitting just .123, with a .219 on-base percentage.

Even in his two no-decisions and four losses, McKenzie’s numbers stand out: In those six starts he’s held opposing hitters to a .180 batting average.

Many of the numbers McKenzie has posted in his first nine starts look like Cy Young Award-caliber numbers. But he and the other four starters in Cleveland’s rotation – Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill, Zac Plesac, and Aaron Civale – all have losing records.

The problem is Cleveland’s doubly-deceptive lineup, which isn’t as potent or productive as some of its numbers suggest. As a group, Guardians hitters this year got off to an impressive start offensively. But most of it was traceable to the below-average pitching staffs Cleveland faced in the early weeks of the season.

The opposing pitchers have been much more formidable in the last few weeks, and Cleveland’s offense has disappeared. With such little support, the margin of error for Cleveland’s pitchers has continued to shrink – none more so than McKenzie.

The long, lanky right-hander has allowed four or fewer hits in eight of his nine starts, but he’s only won three of them. His ERA in his two no decisions is 1.08.

A first-round pick by Cleveland out of a Florida high school in the 2015 draft, McKenzie dominated hitters in four minor league seasons, during which he held opposing hitters to a .197 batting average. He missed the entire 2019 season due to injuries, but pitched his way to Cleveland in 2020.

His first big league start was a showstopper. In his major league debut, he beat Detroit 6-1. In six innings he allowed one run on two hits, with 10 strikeouts and one walk, becoming the first pitcher in Cleveland history, and only the eighth overall in the majors since 1893 to have 10 or more strikeouts and allow two or fewer hits in his major league debut.

Last year McKenzie average 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings and in 25 appearances held opposing batters to a .194 average.

He’s been Cleveland’s best pitcher over the first two months of this season, even if his won-loss record doesn’t indicate it.

“His ball comes through the zone really well,” said Manager Terry Francona. “He’s figuring out what it takes to be a good pro and he takes it to the mound on days he pitches.”

McKenzie said his philosophy is fairly simple. “I’m going out there and executing pitches and attacking their bats, forcing them to put the ball in play,” he said. “I’m not trying to force strikeouts. I’m trying to make them make quick outs.”

The challenge for McKenzie and all of Cleveland’s pitchers is to avoid big innings, because the Guardians’ lineup isn’t equipped to make up huge deficits. Although Cleveland ranks fourth in the American League in team batting average (.243) and runs scored per game (4.48), the Guardians have scored four or fewer runs in 62 percent of their games. They’ve scored four or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games.

They are currently 19-24 overall, and have been over .500 only once since April 22. They’ve lost 10 of their last 14 games.

Most of the losing has been due to a very-young lineup being overmatched by opposing pitchers. That, in turn, puts more pressure on Cleveland’s pitchers, whose numbers, especially McKenzie’s, should be better than they are.