What to Expect in the Markets Next Week

U.S. equity markets rose this week, as the major averages snapped their recent losing streaks. The Dow broke with its eight-week losing streak, its longest in nearly a century. For the week, the Dow rose 6.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 6.6%, while the Nasdaq gained 6.8%. The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury note fell to 2.74%, as government bonds and safe-haven assets rallied amid growing concerns about the risk of a recession. Crude oil prices rose this week, driven by tightening global supplies and a reduction in U.S. inventories of crude. WTI crude oil closed out the week at $115 per barrel, its highest level since early March. Gasoline prices hit a new record this week, with the national average price for a gallon of gas rising to $4.60, according to AAA.

It will be a shortened trading week as markets close for the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. on Monday. On Tuesday, investors can expect the latest update on home prices with the release of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for March. Several important economic indicators are scheduled for release, including PMI surveys, consumer confidence, and key updates to the labor market. Labor market reports due next week will include the latest job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), the ADP’s private sector payrolls report, and the Labor Department’s official May nonfarm payrolls report. Companies reporting earnings will include Salesforce, HP, Chewy, Gamestop, PVH, Broadcom, and Lululemon, among others.

Events Calendar:

Monday, May 30

Tuesday, May 31

• Salesforce (CRM) and HP (HPQ) report earnings
• S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (March)
• Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index (March)
• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
• CB Consumer Confidence (May)
• Chicago PMI (May)

Wednesday, June 1

• Chewy (CHWY), Gamestop (GME), and PVH (PVH) report earnings
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
• JOLTS Job Openings & Quits (April)
• Dallas Fed Services Index (May)
• Fed Beige Book

Thursday, June 2

• Broadcom (AVGO), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Lululemon (LULU) report earnings
• ADP Private Sector Payrolls (May)
• Factory Orders (April)

Friday, June 3

• Nonfarm Payrolls Report (May)
• S&P Global Composite PMI – Final (May)
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)

National Home Price Updates

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s will be releasing the latest monthly update to its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, tracking March home price gains. The 20-City Composite Index is projected to climb to a new all-time high of 20.5% year-over-year, following a 20.2% increase in February. Home prices have been surging nationally since mid-2020, with the largest price gains recorded in Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami. 

Also on Tuesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (Freddie Mac) will release its National Home Price Index, tracking price gains for single-family homes with mortgages guaranteed by the mortgage originator. The housing market is showing signs of cooling as rising mortgage rates and lack of affordability increasingly deter new home buyers. New and pending home sales posted significant declines in April, with new home sales falling to their lowest level since April 2020.

Key Labor Market Reports

Next week, market watchers can expect several key updates gauging the strength of the U.S. labor market. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, measuring openings, hires, and separations for the month of April. Job openings stood at a record 11.5 million in March, amid a historically tight labor market. Projections for April anticipate a slight decline to 11.4 million openings. Meanwhile, the job quits rate stood at 3% as turnover remains high amid the Great Resignation, with workers continuing to seek more favorable job opportunities.

Payroll service provider ADP will release its monthly National Employment report tracking private sector payrolls on Thursday. Consensus estimates call for a gain of 280,000 positions, following a smaller-than-expected gain of 247,000 jobs in April. The BLS will also release its May nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Projections call for a gain of 310,000 jobs, compared to an increase of 428,000 positions for both March and April. As of April, nonfarm payrolls stood at 151.3 million, 0.8% below the pre-pandemic peak of 152.5 million recorded in February 2020.