JPY forecast amid the Bank of Japan keeping the monetary policy easy

The rapid depreciation of the Japanese yen (JPY) in the last couple of years led to one of the most impressive moves seen in the FX market in recent history. The yen simply melted, losing value against all its peers – not only against the US dollar.
Speaking of the US dollar, the yen dropped to over 131 recently before gaining some ground in the last few days. How will the yen perform for the rest of the year, and is the Bank of Japan right in keeping the monetary policy easy?

Bank of Japan still sees inflation as transitory

The main reason for the JPY’s move lower is the Bank of Japan’s policy. The central bank sees inflation as transitory, and, for this reason, it keeps the monetary policy easy.

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It keeps buying government bonds, despite PPI or Producers Price Index (i.e., inflation on the producers’ side) rising at a four-decade high.

But so did the Fed, before dropping the transitory word when talking about inflation. If the PPI transfers to consumers, as it should, then the Bank of Japan would have to reverse its policy.

Truth be said, inflation in Japan is below 2% for decades, hurting the Bank of Japan’s credibility. It might have dramatic implications on the FX dashboard if it rises considerably above the target.

Only that the FX market is a leading one. Traders speculate and position themselves well before a central bank acts.

So did we see the lowest point in the JPY or not?

AUD/JPY daily chart points to a possible reversal

All JPY pairs’ charts look more or less like the AUD/JPY daily chart below. It shows that following the COVID-19 pandemic dip in 2020, the market rallied relentlessly.

But the recent breakout in 2022 following the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control comments is only the last leg of an otherwise super long trend. In other words, the yen was sold well ahead of the Bank of Japan’s comments. It followed the US stock market higher.

Now that the US stock market is coming down (i.e., Nasdaq 100 dropped -28% YTD), the JPY pairs may follow. The AUD/JPY chart above shows a possible head and shoulders pattern at the top which might just signal the top of a bigger head and shoulders pattern.

In other words, should the recent highs hold, a move back to 80 should not be discounted, especially if the US stock markets keep falling.