‘Doctor Strange 2’ Conjures A Magical $36 Million Thursday

Sam Raimi and Michael Waldron’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (review) earned a whopping $36 million in Thursday previews. That’s well above The Batman ($22 million toward a $134 million opening weekend) and obviously below Spider-Man: No Way Home ($50 million toward a $260 million debut). It’s right in line with the upper realm of Avengers MCU launches. It’s above the $21 million preview gross of Captain Marvel, which opened with $155 million in March of 2019 and both Black Panther ($25 million) and Captain America: Civil War ($25 million). It is even above the $27 million Thursday of Age of Ultron (which debuted with $191 million in May of 2015). Among Marvel preview grosses, it is below only the $39 million and $60 million Thursday preview grosses of Avengers: Infinity War (toward a $258 million launch in April of 2018) and Avengers: Endgame (toward a $356 million debut in April of 2019).

The Benedict Cumberatch-led sequel won’t have the white-hot buzz and four-day weekend that boosted Black Panther’s Fri-Sun cume past $200 million in February of 2018, but a debut on par with Iron Man 3 ($174 million from a $17 million Thursday in May of 2013) or Civil War ($179 million/$25 million in May of 2016) now feels like the “worst-case scenario.” Even a 20% Thursday-to-weekend split, think The Dark Knight Rises, the Twilight sequels and Spider-Man: No Way Home, gets Doctor Strange 2 to $180 million for the weekend. The realistic best-case scenario is now arguably earning around seven times its Thursday number, think Age of Ultron and Infinity War, which would put its opening weekend at around $255 million. Even a 16.4% Thursday-to-weekend figure, think The Batman or Avengers: Endgame, still puts the film at $215-$220 million for the weekend. Yeah, it’s going to be huge.

While reviews have been generally positive (77% fresh and 6.6/10 on Rotten Tomatoes), I am curious as to how word of mouth will play for this potentially divisive and possibly controversial MCU chapter. The film isn’t remotely a “mythology episode,” existing as a mostly stand-alone Doctor Strange sequel with little-to-no overall impact on the broader MCU. The much-hyped cameos are every bit as inessential as you’d expect considering Kevin Fiege and friends know full well that general audiences don’t obsess upon Easter Eggs and fan bait to anywhere near the extent as do the perpetually online, and the film’s core conflict (Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlett Witch is the Big Bad) isn’t going to play great with those who obsessed upon Wanda’s “#girlboss coping with trauma” arc in WandaVision. By default, this is Marvel Studios’ most subversive film since Iron Man 3 in terms of playing against fan expectations.

The reception of Iron Man 3 is a classic example of “the online narrative does not equal the opinion of general audiences,” as the Shane Black film earned rave reviews, an A from Cinemascore while grossing $409 million domestic and $1.215 billion worldwide. Ditto Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which caused an online firestorm (some, but not all, fueled by racist/sexist whining and disingenuous complainers) yet still earned rave reviews, an A from CinemaScore and grossed $620 million worldwide and $1.333 billion global. But that’s a conversation for after it opens, and it still looks like an opening weekend between $180 million and $220 million. Considering Doctor Strange opened with $88 million in late 2016, this would represent one of the biggest “wide release opening weekend for part one to wide release opening weekend of part two” jumps in modern box office history.