Brewers’ Corbin Burnes Is Defending His MLB Starting Pitcher Grade-Point Average Title

In recent weeks in this space, I’ve rolled out my annual MLB Best Pitches series. Click to see the pitch-specific articles on changeups, curveballs, cutters/splitters, four-seam fastballs, sinkers and sliders. Today, we bring it all together, combining the grades for each pitch in the arsenals of all 72 pitchers who threw 135 or more innings in 2021 to calculate starting pitcher Grade-Point Averages.

We’ve gone pitch by pitch through the arsenals of all starting pitchers to determine the game’s best – and worst – offerings. The pitches have been graded on their bat-missing and contact management results. Each pitch is compared to league average swing-and-miss rates and pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Scores.

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Adjusted Contact Score is, on a scale where 100 equals MLB average and the lower the number the better, the relative production a pitcher “should have” allowed based on the exit speed/launch angle mix of every batted ball yielded. An average pitch gets a “B’”, and a sliding scale is applied to each pitcher’s results to approximate a bell curve.

The pitcher GPAs are calculated by taking the grade for each individual pitch and multiplying by its usage rate, and then adding those pitch scores together. The average pitcher GPA should be around 3.00 (a “B”) if I’m doing this correctly – the average came out to 2.99.

One note of caution and context before we begin. In earlier articles here you may have seen me grade pitchers’ 2021 “performance” by placing pitchers in “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average order. In doing so, I used my batted-ball metrics to determine how pitchers “should have” performed. I measured pitchers’ value by measuring their outputs. Here, I am measuring their pitch arsenals – their inputs. Though there is plenty of output still being weighed here, I look at pitch grades as more of a proactive, scouting measurement. There are going to be some pitchers who look out of place GPA-wise, and that doesn’t take anything away from what they may have accomplished in the past – but it may give us a heads-up about what may happen in the future.

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Let’s break the class into quartiles, and highlight some of the more interesting names in each group.

1ST QUARTILE (GPAs of 3.33 to 4.06)

Lance Lynn, Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Freddy Peralta, Zack Wheeler, Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Gausman, Charlie Morton, Nathan Eovaldi, Sandy Alcantara, Robbie Ray, Brandon Woodruff, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb, Julio Urias

Lynn posted the best overall GPA at 4.06, while Burnes led all ERA qualifiers at 3.76. How did the White Sox righty actually exceed a 4.0? Well, he got an “A+” grade for his four-seamer, which he threw 40.3% of the time. He’s injured and has yet to take the mound this season, but such a dominant four-seamer gives Lynn a heck of a head start over most pitchers.

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As great as Burnes is, his strong 3.76 GPA is likely understated. Only two of his pitches met the quantity criteria for inclusion, and his curve (18.3% usage rate) got an “A+” grade. His lights-out cutter barely missed an “A”, largely because it was evaluated alongside splitters, which are more effective on a relative basis. In the real world, the cutter’s better than my method says it is. On top of that, his sinker and slider both barely missed the quantity thresholds required to receive a grade. So despite not catching a single break from my method……Burnes still checks in with the very best GPA among 2021 ERA qualifiers. Oh, and he nosed out Zack Wheeler for the MLB lead in “Tru” Pitching Runs, my barometer for the Cy Young Award. Great season by any measure.

You might be shocked to see Jameson Taillon’s name in the top quartile. He had been limited to a total of 37 innings by injury in 2019-20, and his mainstream numbers were just OK last season. He threw his four-seam fastball 49.4% of the time last season and got an “A+” grade for the pitch. His 14.7% swing-and-miss rate on the pitch was tied for 2nd among qualifiers, behind only Lynn. Taillon is a major breakout candidate if he can get either of his other primary pitches – his curve and slider – to average or better. They both got “C+” grades in 2021.

Eduardo Rodriguez’ name in this group might also surprise some. The narrative is comparable to Taillon’s – Rodriguez got a slightly lesser four-seam grade (an “A”) for a four-seamer that he threw quite often (39.9% usage rate). Rodriguez’ floor might be even higher, as he already has two other “B+” pitches in place (changeup, sinker).

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2ND QUARTILE (GPAs of 3.05 to 3.32)

Walker Buehler, Chris Bassitt, Kyle Gibson, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Jon Gray, Sean Manaea, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray, Luis Garcia, German Marquez, Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers Jr., Tyler Anderson, Aaron Nola, Joe Musgrove, Tyler Mahle, Alex Wood

First off, Buehler and Bassitt might as well be considered as 1st Quartile guys, as they just missed. Cole’s omission from the first group is certainly notable, however, especially as he was my pick for 2021 AL Cy, as the league leader in “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average.

Cole certainly retains the foundation of a stellar arsenal, as his changeup received an “A” and his four-seamer and slider both received “B+” grades. It’s pretty tough to rank among the leaders in GPA when one of your core pitches is saddled with a “D+”. That’s how Cole’s knuckle-curve fared last season, posting an awful 145 Adjusted Contact Score, 2nd worst among qualifiers. Even the pitch’s whiff rate of 11.0% was well below average. Obviously, Cole is as durable as they come and his front-line stuff remains strong, but it’s tough to be among the very best when you’ve got a really weak link in the chain.

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Very quietly, Frankie Montas finished 6th in the 2021 AL Cy Young voting. He ranked nowhere near that high in my eyes, according to “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average. He wound up deep in the 2nd Quartile despite having an “A+” splitter in his arsenal. The limiting factor for Montas was a poor-performing slider. It received a “D+” grade, largely due to a 123 Adjusted Contact Score (2nd worst among qualifiers).

Aaron Nola’s name also stands out a bit among this group. He was arguably the best 2021 ERA qualifier without an “A” grade pitch – his change, knuckle-curve and sinker all received “B+” grades. Even worse, his most oft-used pitch – his four-seamer, with a 37.7% usage rate – was his worst, earning a “C+”. Its pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score of 151 was quite poor.

3RD QUARTILE (GPAs of 2.61 TO 3.03)

Cal Quantrill, Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Wade Miley, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, Marcus Stroman, John Means, Adrian Houser, Rich Hill, Jose Berrios, Zack Greinke, Chris Flexen, Cole Irvin, Marco Gonzales, Antonio Senzatela, Taijuan Walker, Madison Bumgarner

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Yu Darvish and Jose Berrios are two names you probably weren’t expecting to see in the 3rd Quartile. Darvish is a fairly unique case – he throws a bunch of pitches, but threw only three of them often enough to get a letter grade in 2021. And of those, one – his slider – was bad enough (”C” grade) to torpedo the entire repertoire. His slider’s 10.3% swing-and-miss rate was 2nd lowest among qualifiers.

Then there’s Berrios. Many consider him one of MLB’s foremost starters, but I’m here to tell you that none of his four primary pitches graded out as above average last season. His changeup and sinker got “B” grades, his curve and four-seamer “C+” grades. Even worse, none of the four offerings were above average in either the bat-missing or contact management departments.

4TH QUARTILE (GPAs of 1.77 TO 2.60)

Casey Mize, Mike Minor, Jordan Lyles, Zach Plesac, Yusei Kikuchi, Adam Wainwright, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Merrill Kelly, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Ryan Yarbrough, Garrett Richards, Tarik Skubal, Mike Foltynewicz, Zach Davies

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Obviously, the big outlier here is Adam Wainwright, but if you think about it, it’s not a surprise. There are two big reasons for his current success – pinpoint command and incredible team defense – and those aren’t fully appreciated by this method. He doesn’t rank highly in “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average, either, though he’s far above the bottom quartile by that measure.

A couple players with the stuff to rise above this group? Kikuchi and Skubal. Kikuchi actually got an “A+” for his changeup last season, but threw the pitch only 10.5% of the time. Modest improvement in his other offerings plus increased changeup frequency could give him a jumpstart.

Skubal’s stuff isn’t the problem – his propensity for allowing loud contact is, and he gets away with some of his mistakes because of his spacious home park. None of Skubal’s individual pitches got even an average grade in 2021, but both his four-seamer and sinker had above average whiff rates that were drowned out by hideous pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Scores of 185 and 129, respectively.

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Here is a table with all 72 qualifiers’ 2021 GPAs, along with their “Tru” ERA- and FIP- marks. In the next couple weeks, we’ll dig a little deeper into a few of these pitchers’ arsenals, incorporating their 2022 results into the mix.