Russian Victory Day Parade Cut By 35%, Emphasizing Ukraine’s Battlefield Prowess

As Russia scales up anti-West rhetoric, Russia has scaled down their May 9 Victory Day Parade by almost 35 percent. The cuts are so dramatic, and the planned parade so humiliating, that Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, will likely do almost anything to keep the World from focusing overly much upon Russia’s dwindling military prospects.

As planned, the 2022 Victory Day military parade through Red Square will be a humiliating exercise for the Russian military. The traditional parade, commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany in World War II, has always been a place where active Russian leaders flaunted their strength and demonstrated Russia’s military prowess.

This year, Russia’s slimmed-down Victory Day Parade projects little more than military and economic weakness.

Russia Cannot Hide Their Losses In Ukraine

Parade guides show that only 25 Russian ground combat systems will be represented by 131 ground combat vehicles. That might sound like a lot, but, last year, Russia deployed 198 vehicles to display 35 separate systems.

The shift is marked. In 2015, after Russia annexed Crimea, Russia used the Victory Day Parade to reveal a robust suite of new and seemingly formidable Russian weaponry. But now, after failing to take Ukraine by force, Russia’s military shortcomings will be on full display, strengthening Ukrainian apatite for sustained resistance and a long war of attrition.

The shrunken parade reflects both battlefield failings and large losses. The usual large contingent of Rosgvardia forces, after being mauled in Ukraine, are absent.

Faced with confirmed losses of at least 600 tanks, Russia’s battered army now seems unable to even muster mainstream armored vehicles—staples of any Russian military parade. After losing at least 114 T-80 tanks of various flavors, Russia’s military is now apparently unable to find ten display-ready T-80 main battle tanks.

Reflecting enormous battlefield losses, the number of Russian Infantry Fighting Vehicles participating in the parade was cut by 50%. Only 3 BMP-3 Infantry Fighting Vehicles will parade through Red Square. Artillery and multiple rocket launch systems have mostly disappeared, represented by a single class of 152 mm self-propelled howitzer and an “updated” version of the old 122mm Grad multiple rocket launcher—a battlefield system that was cutting edge back in the 1960’s.

In a sorry effort to boost the number of systems on parade, the Russians are even highlighting the lowly tank transporters employed to carry Russia’s poor-performing unmanned ground system, the Uran 9, over the parade route.

Even more interesting is that Russia seems unable to grow the number of advanced weapon systems. After revealing a number of new—and well-hyped—armored vehicles in 2015, Russia’s arms factories have evidently been unable to build parade-ground ready demonstrators.

Production seems frozen.

Russia’s new main battle tank, the T-14 Armata, made a Victory Parade debut in 2015. And, despite all the ambitious talk about how the new tank was out “in the field” and working through production kinks in Syria, Russia somehow only has three examples ready to show in the Red Square parade—the three-tank parade fleet has remained steady for three years now.

Other new systems—armored vehicles that might not be quite ready for battle but certainly should, at this point in their development, be available in sufficient numbers for parade duty—just haven’t grown. Along with the T-14 Armatas, there’s no evidence Russia has been able to build up other critical components of their next-generation armored vehicle fleet.

Next week, Russia is set to display display only three copies of the Kurganets-25 infantry fighting vehicle. First shown in the 2015 Victory Parade, production seems to have frozen. Another example from the 2015 parade, the VPK-7829 Bumerang armored car, is stuck with an unchanging inventory of 3 parade-ready platforms.

If Russia’s military parades are any guide, the Russian Army’s modernization is little more than an overhyped mirage.

Beyond simply emphasizing the strain Ukraine is placing on Russia’s army, the 2022 Victory Parade suggests that Russia’s armored vehicle production capabilities are crumbling.

Russia’s Parade Celebrates Ukrainian Achievement:

The message sent by Russia’s planned military fly-over is even worse.

After losing at least 39 helicopters in Ukraine, Russia can only muster 15 helicopters for parade duty, down from 23 in 2021.

Russia’s fixed-wing aircraft are also facing serious losses over Ukraine. After loosing more than ten modern Sukhoi Su-30 and Su-34 fighter aircraft on the battlefield, none are showing up for the parade. Instead, the Victory Parade overflight seems set to celebrate Russia’s lost military glory, represented by a creaky fleet of Mikoyan Mig-29 fighter jets.

The shift in attention is stark. After relegating the “Fulcrum” to the back benches in prior parades—only 4 Mig-29s passed over Red Square in the last two Victory Day celebrations—Russia is highlighting the old Soviet-era jet in a big way.

This year, Russia is deploying an incredible 16 Mig-29s—the ‘70’s era war horse will represent more than 25 percent of the fixed-wing aircraft Russia plans to fly over Red Square on May 9.

In a sad effort to snatch back some of the glory Ukraine’s Air Force has enjoyed with its fleet of cast-off former Soviet Mig-29s, Russia is even sending the old fighters out to conduct a tawdry “Z” pattern fly-by.

It May Be Victory Day, But Russia is Celebrating Somebody Else’s Victory

Putin must know that he is set to preside over an embarrassment. The May 9 military parade only highlights Russia’s massive losses in Ukraine and emphasizes Russia’s crumbling industrial capabilities. In the air, Russia’s Air Force is resorting to celebrating an iconic Ukrainian platform that is now almost a symbol of resistance to the Putin regime.

The Russian military knows that this year’s Victory Day parade is a sad and tawdry show, and Putin, if he shows up, will have to sit though it all. It will not be a pleasant experience—and Russia’s military leaders, for their part, may well enjoy watching their boss squirm over his role in the current debacle.

To distract or deflect from his regime’s role in Russia’s military collapse, Russia’s president and his flunkies will likely lean into anti-semitic actions, apocalyptic rhetoric, or take some other controversial step. Putin, in turn, may use the embarassing parade to castigate military leaders, demanding reform. Or, instead, he may follow Joseph Stalin’s World War II example and use the evident military shortcomings to call for a full national mobilization.

The May 9 Victory Day Parade is an unavoidable moment of pageantry, putting Russia’s military and Russia’s leadership on a prominent world stage. But the big Red Square show, as it stands now, suggests that, while Russia may be celebrating a victory, things are not going Russia’s way on the current battlefield in Ukraine.

Instigating drama is about the only way the Russian regime can reduce growing awareness that both Russian and Putin’s authority is backed by a Potemkin military—an apparently over-hyped and now largely hollow force.