More Explosions Hit Moscow-Backed Transnistria As Fears Grow Moldova Will Become A New Front In Russia’s Invasion

Topline

Authorities in Transnistria, a Moscow-backed breakaway region of Moldova that borders Ukraine, reported two explosions on Tuesday morning, the second instance of violence reported in as many days amid fears the region could be dragged into Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Key Facts

Key Background

While Transnistria is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, it fought against the newly-independent Moldova in 1992 and has been largely autonomous since. Chisinau—the Moldovan seat of power—acknowledges it does not have control over the region and there are stark cultural and political differences between Transnistria and the rest of Moldova. The region is geographically separated from the rest of Moldova by the Dniester river, has a majority Russian-speaking population and—in contrast to Chisinau’s pro-western political bent since the fall of the Soviet Union—maintains a pro-Russia political stance. The region has kept close ties with Russia, is supported militarily by Moscow and hosts a large number of Russian troops. Moldova, one of the poorest regions in Europe, has long warned the West of the risks it faces from Russia, particularly as a member of neither NATO nor the European Union. There has been an “explosion” of Russian disinformation in Moldova since it invaded Ukraine in February, Wired reports, stoking anti-refugee sentiment as hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fled to the country.

What To Watch For

Further developments in Moldova and southern Ukraine. On Friday, a senior Russian official said Moscow plans to establish “full control” over southern Ukraine and the country’s eastern Donbas region as part of the “second phase” of its military operation. In addition to achieving Russia’s goal of “liberating” Russian-speaking regions of eastern Ukraine and creating a land bridge to Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, this would create a new route to Transnistria. Without providing proof, the Kremlin has frequently said Russian-speaking minorities are oppressed in Transnistria, allegations it has previously leveled against Donetsk and Luhansk, separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. Russia has justified their invasion of Ukraine as a means of protecting these Russian minorities. Officials in Ukraine, Moldova and the U.S. fear similar tactics may be used to justify an attack on Moldova.

Further Reading

Russia Wants ‘Full Control’ Over Ukraine’s South, East And Eyes Part Of Moldova, Commander Says (Forbes)

Why Russia Would Want To Capture Land Leading To Moldova’s Transnistria (Forbes)

Explosions hit state security building in Transnistria (FT)

An ‘Explosion’ of Anti-Ukraine Disinformation Is Hitting Moldova (Wired)