‘Fantastic Beasts 3’ Nabs Poor $43 Million Debut

Well, the good news is that Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore was the top-grossing movie in North America on its debut weekend. The bad news is, in relation to domestic earnings, everything else. The third chapter in J.K. Rowling’s alleged five-part prequel saga opened with just $43 million, a massive comedown from $62 million for The Crimes of Grindelwald in 2018 and $74 million for Where to Find Them in 2016. The damage done by the critically-trashed and mostly-rejected seconcd chapter, one which traded the whimsy and character-focused fantasy for a loose retread of the first franchise’s “brave young wizard versus magical Hitler” story, is now undeniably wrought. Barring incredible viewership on HBO Max in 45 days, the graceful exit offered by The Secret Of Dumbledore’s lovely epilogue will now likely serve as a series finale.

This is less studio mismanagement and more letting the wrong artistic voice craft a filmmaker-driven franchise. Warner Bros. has decades of experience throwing money at autuers and hoping for the best, and it’s why they had a reputation as an old-school “dream factory.” Sometimes you get you get The Dark Knight ($1 billion worldwide) and Sherlock Holmes ($525 million on a $90 million budget), sometimes you get Speed Racer (which I adore, but a hit it was not) and Mars Attacks! (ditto). While I wondered outloud way back when if Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was less Batman Begins and more Amazing Spider-Man, the first film did earn solid reviews, an A from Cinemascore, a leggy $234 million domestic and a huge $814 million worldwide on a $180 million budget.

Even The Crimes of Grindelwald, which made all of the “franchse over movie” artistic mistakes that would fell Scream 3, Amazing Spider-Man 2, Spectre, The Rise of Skywalker and F9, earned $655 million worldwide in late 2018. Yes, it crashed dometically ($155 million) but it fell just 15% overseas. I’ve spent three years shouting that the end was near, because it happened with The Divergent Series ($288 million in 2014, $296 million in 2015 and $172 million in 2016). Heck, we saw similar downturns for the rebooted X-Men franchise (especially if you count Days of Future Past as essentially Bryan Singer’s X-Men 4) and the Terminator reboots ($375 million for Salvation in 2009, $441 million for Genisys in 2015 thanks to brief interest in China and then $255 million for Dark Fate in 2019).

However, WB essentially had little choice but to press ahead and A) give the story something resembling an ending and B) keep Rowling happy on the off-chance that doomsaying pundits like me were wrong. Ezra Miller didn’t start getting in trouble with the law until April of 2020. Rowling’s online transphobia controversies didn’t really kick into gear until June of 2020. However unlikely, it was *possible* (in non-Covid times and a world where the only “problematic” cast member was Johnny Depp) that a course-correction threequel, co-written by Steve Kloves, might have earned enough to justify the excursion. After all, if the downturn in North America wasn’t represented overseas, then three more movies that earned around $600 million worldwide each would annoint this IP extension as a success. But in our timeline, $400-$450 million is the likely endgame.

Yes, Covid outbreaks have closed down around half of China and Hollywood exports have been much less valuable since 2018 (as China’s own slate of mega-movies take precedence), but there’s history for this too. X-Men: Apocalypse earned $121 million in China in 2016 and Terminator: Dark Fate earned $113 million (frontloaded from a $26 million opening day) there in 2015. Chinese audiences are also capable of choosing to jump off the train. Terminator: Dark Fate earned$50 million while X-Men: Dark Phoenix earned $59 million. That Fantastic Beasts would decline from $86 million to $53 million to around $20 million isn’t a surpise. As seen by lightning-fast descents for Detective Chinatown 3 ($685 million from a $399 million opening weekend) and F9 ($217 million/$136 million), China doesn’t like franchise-building/retcon-heavy/plot-over-character mythology any more than Americans do.

We’re probably looking at a domestic run akin to Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($110 million from a $48 million debut). Such a multiplier would give Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore $99 million. It has thus far earned $193 million worldwide, including a solid $150 million overseas. Legs will determine if it merely crawls to $400 million or reaches $450 million. Both would be mediocre by pre-Covid standards, but it’s not like we’ve seen a bunch of $400 million-plus grossers in the last two years. That three of them (Godzilla Vs. Kong, Dune and The Batman) came from WB makes me less inclined to grade this one on a Covid curve. That’s especially true for a once-towering franchise that’s supposed to be “the danger.” The Star Wars prequel trilogy ($2.5 billion) or the Hobbit trilogy ($2.9 billion) this is not.

Starring Mark Wahlberg (who put up some of his own money to finish the film during its Covid-era shoot), Mel Gibson, Jackie Weaver and Teresa Ruiz, Sony’s Father Stu concerns a true story about a down-on-his-luck boxer who became an inspirational priest. Written and directed by Rosalind Ross (Mel Gibson’s girlfriend since 2014), the film received mixed-negative reviews and scored an Easter-enhanced $5.7 million Fri-Sun/$8 million Wed-Sun domestic debut. The second coming of Miracles from Heaven ($62 million in 2016), War Room ($68 million in 2015) or Heaven is For Real ($91 million in 2014) this is not, but it’ll do. K.G.F: Chapter 2 earned around $1.02 million in 820 theaters for a likely $4.58 million Wed-Sun opening weekend (with $51 million worldwide thus far). Beast will earn $1.3 million in 368 theaters as RRR nears $140 million global.