Who’s The NBA MVP? Final Rankings For The 2021-22 Season

The 2021-22 NBA season was an unforgettable journey. There was no better way to celebrate the league’s 75th anniversary than what we’ve seen over the last six months. From parity in both conferences to historical achievements and award debates along the way, this is gearing up to be a thrilling playoff run.

With the regular season behind us, it’s time to hand out the Most Valuable Player award. There are five spots on the ballot with plenty of superstars worthy of the recognition.

The following is my top-five for this year’s MVP, accompanied by each player’s statistical profiles:

Notes:

• Record shown is the team’s record when Player X is active.
• Points, Rebounds, and Assists are shown on a per-75 possession scale. This adjusts for pace and minutes, considering the average superstar will play roughly 75 possessions in a single game.
• WS/48 = Win Shares Per 48 Minutes, via Basketball-Reference
• BPM = Box Plus-Minutes, via Basketball-Reference. BPM approximates a player’s value on a per-100 possession rate, compared to a league-average player.
• EPM = Estimated Plus-Minus, provided by DunksAndThrees.com
• RAPTOR = FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR model, which uses play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement.
• LEBRON = BBall-Index’s model, which measures total impact on the floor per 100 possessions.

The biggest (and strangest) misconception surrounding Jokić and his MVP case is that he’s only being propped up by the advanced metrics. Somewhere along the way, the discussion lost its nuance. It became devoid of reasonable analysis with extreme vitriol creeping in from both sides. On social media platforms, most of those in favor of Embiid winning the award resorted to tearing down Jokić as a candidate, claiming he wouldn’t be leading if “nerds” weren’t skewing the votes.

However, that argument missed the mark. On many levels. The first issue with it, of course, is believing an MVP race is determined by just one factor. It’s never only about the statistical case. It’s never only about the on-court “feel,” or how aesthetically pleasing a player’s dominance might be. And it certainly never boils down to which player has the most satisfying or heartwarming narrative.

Instead, everything must be taken into account.

Like All-NBA lists, the MVP award is always supposed to be a snapshot of the current season. You can’t leave out context and you can’t dismiss any part of a candidate’s résumé.

From October to April, the best player in the world was Nikola Jokić. It’s not solely because the numbers suggested it. His brilliance as a post-scorer, mid-range threat, and unparalleled playmaker – both as a table-setter and dynamic creator – showed us why. As a top-flight defensive rebounder to finish possessions and lead the break for his team, he exhibited what the middle ground between flair and fundamentals should be for a new-age center.

Despite missing eight games, Jokić gave viewers a taste of what it was like to see late-1960s Wilt Chamberlain on the floor. While he didn’t average 40 or 50 points per game, he put every ounce of energy into being the offensive hub for his team. Collecting over 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds, and 500 assists in a single season had never been done until the Joker eclipsed those benchmarks last week.

While nobody is on par with Chamberlain as an hellacious rebounder, the versatile attack of Jokić put him in the same company as a statistical giant. It should be mentioned the years shown below are Wilt’s seventh and eighth NBA seasons, which typically aren’t the ones you point to when highlighting how much of an anomaly he was. But, adding to the comparison, this is also Jokić’s seventh regular season.

Look at the difference in total minutes, for context on how much Wilt was playing in each game:

There isn’t anything complex or advanced about those standard, in-game counting numbers. In fact, you would think most fans would gravitate toward his style and effectiveness, considering he’s a throwback center who does most of his damage inside the arc – specifically, in the post.

You don’t have to look into statistics with acronym titles, or the metrics that scare people away because they don’t care to learn about what each of the numbers value. In simplest terms, among all seasons with at least 1,000 shot attempts, Jokić just posted the second-highest efficiency within two-point range. Not just in this era – across the NBA’s 75-year history.

His 65.2% mark on twos is behind only Wilt’s 1966-67 season. Think about that: The only player to achieve what Jokić did (from a volume and efficiency) standpoint was a guy who mostly played against smaller and weaker opponents relative to the competition Jokić faces on a nightly basis:

Even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who tortured defenses with a move that many claim to be the most unstoppable in basketball history, never shot above 60.4% from two during his career.

Baked into Jokić’s improvement from two-point range (up 4.6 percentage points from last year) was his crafty and unbelievable post-up skills. Last season, Embiid had the upper hand in post-up efficiency, scoring 1.08 points per possession to Jokić’s 1.04 PPP. This time, Denver’s franchise cornerstone took it to another level. Among all players with at least 100 post-up attempts this year, Jokić led the NBA in efficiency (1.17 PPP), per NBA.com tracking. It came on 62.9% shooting on post-ups, while only generating free throws on 14.9% of his post-up possessions.

Embiid, meanwhile, slightly regressed to 1.05 PPP on post-ups, shooting just 48.7% on those opportunities and generating free throws on 25.9% of his chances. He got to the line a lot more than Jokić when Philly went to him in the post, but still fell far behind his rival in overall efficiency out of those looks.

Out of pure necessity, the Joker has been asked to increase his scoring usage over the last two years. One of the main counterarguments to Jokić winning this year’s MVP would be Denver’s seeding. Sitting sixth in the Western Conference, it can seem distasteful for certain fans who believe the MVP is too prestigious of an honor for anyone below a homecourt seed.

The problem with that logic? There isn’t a substantial difference between Jokić, Embiid, and Antetokounmpo’s team success with each player active. Antetokounmpo has led Milwaukee to a 55-win pace when he’s on floor. Embiid had Philadelphia at a 54-win pace, and Jokić followed with a 51-win pace.

Yet, the Nuggets had a higher net rating with Jokić on the floor than either of those two teams did with their superstar. Jokić’s Nuggets were 8.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponents when he played; Giannis had the Bucks at +8.0 during his minutes and Embiid’s Sixers were +7.8 on a per-100 possessions basis. Again, in similar fashion to the team records, it’s a marginal difference. Nothing gargantuan in terms of on-court production to make this race a blowout. But to me, that wipes away the concern of Denver’s seeding or win difference compared to Giannis and Embiid.

Team context also plays a huge role in this.

It cannot be overlooked that Jokić has played the entire year without his primary pick-and-roll partner, his best dribble-handoff threat, and one of the best pull-up shooters in basketball. Jamal Murray missed all 82 games due to ACL rehab after playing 67% of the season last year (over 1,700 minutes). Without their best scorer in the backcourt, Michael Malone and the Nuggets desperately needed their big man to recalibrate. Jokić had to enter this season with a renewed focus to become more selfish in certain situations, control the offense more in clutch moments, and never shy away from abusing opponents on the block.

In clutch scenarios — defined as the score being within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining — Jokić increased his usage rating from 37.7% last season to 42.3% this year. But, due to Murray’s absence, he also dictated more of the action with his passing in those moments. His assist rate ballooned from 29.3% in 2021 to 38.9% this season, as he picked apart defenses in every way imaginable.

You also have to throw in Michael Porter Jr.’s lengthy rehab and contextualize how that impacted Denver’s season. Porter Jr. was only able to play nine games before needing back surgery. He hasn’t played since Nov. 6. That’s coming off a successful 2021 season, where Porter Jr. only missed nine games and played over 1,900 minutes.

Without his two best teammates, at least from a scoring perspective, Jokić still picked up the slack and handled the offensive burden the only way he knows how. He dissected every coverage thrown his way, which naturally included more double-teams and early traps than he’s ever seen.

Jokić and Stephen Curry might be the two most challenging players to gameplan for right now. It all stems from how many difficult choices they force you to make. With each double, or any help defender sliding over to shrink the floor, Jokić and Curry have absolutely no problem getting rid of the ball quickly to make the defensive strategy backfire. With Jokić, it’s usually a laser to the weakside corner to hit open shooters after the defense is pulled in. With Curry, it’s unlocking a layup at the rim for one of his bigs after two defenders rush to him, or giving it up to Draymond Green in the open floor to make a play in 4-on-3 situations.

Speaking of those two offensive forces, there’s another reason why Jokić’s season is undoubtedly worthy of this year’s MVP. He joined Curry as the only players in NBA history to eclipse 66% true shooting on at least 30% usage (scoring opportunities and turnovers are calculated into usage rating). One of those seasons was Curry’s unanimous MVP, and the other was a supreme offensive run that was cut short by a knee injury:

What makes Jokić such a unique and legendary talent is how he toggles between an elite scorer and otherworldly playmaker. It’s almost like he has two personas.

You have to look beyond the highlight assists, though. Not only does Jokić lead the NBA in passes per game by a wide margin (73.4), but he also led everyone with 100.1 total touches per game. But, he doesn’t hold onto the ball. He doesn’t make the possession all about him. Jokić ranks just 44th in time of possession per game (4.3 minutes) because he gets rid of it when he recognizes there’s no advantage to be exploited.

At age 27, Jokić is going to be a back-to-back MVP and become the 13th player to ever win at least two consecutive.

Antetokounmpo over Embiid for second was probably the toughest selection, or placement, on the ballot. Truthfully, it’s splitting hairs between second and third. Due to the historical significance of Jokić’s season, the gap between first and second is larger. After that, it’s almost a matter of preference. There’s a subjective nature to these decisions — most of it boils down to what you value the most in a candidate.

The (extremely) narrow edge goes to Antetokounmpo for being an All-Defensive First Team level guy for most of the year, particularly when you factor in the job he was asked to do once Brook Lopez was injured on opening night. Lopez is known to be the anchor of Milwaukee’s vaunted drop coverage defense. Since he joined the Bucks, he’s been arguably the NBA’s smartest rim protector.

When Lopez was sidelined for 68 straight games, the onus fell on Antetokounmpo to slide up a spot and be Milwaukee’s primary source of paint protection. That was in addition to providing his usual, top-tier perimeter services. This year, according to Cleaning The Glass, Giannis played 702 minutes at center – it was 32% of his time on the floor, a huge boost from the 241 minutes last season (12% of his time).

As a result, he defended 320 shots directly at the rim, which was 120 more than last season. Opponents shot just 52.8% on those attempts. It gave him the sixth-lowest defensive field goal percentage allowed at the rim among all players with at least 300 shots contested. The only five above him were centers Isaiah Stewart, Jarrett Allen, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Isaiah Hartenstein.

A fair counterargument would be that Embiid challenged the most shots at the rim in the entire league (596), and that his responsibility was just as high because of Ben Simmons’ decision to request a trade. In reality, it’s hard to decipher who had more defensive pressure on them this season. I tend to value positional flexibility if the debate is close, and Giannis certainly had the most notable clutch moments defensively (including his game-saving stop against Embiid in late March). Also, the Bucks and 76ers had nearly identical defensive ratings with Antetokounmpo and Embiid on the floor, respectively.

Both Embiid and Antetokounmpo had unfathomable scoring seasons. They both leaned heavily into drawing contact and earning more trips to the line this year, boosting their efficiency and helping preserve energy within a game. Absorbing (and finishing through) contact is an underrated skill that doesn’t deserve to be bashed or criticized. If opposing teams or players don’t like how often Embiid and Antetokounmpo are getting whistles … stop fouling them on their drives and post-ups.

As a scoring threat, Embiid became the ninth player to ever reach 30 points per game on 60% true shooting or better. The only players taller than 6’8” on the list are Embiid, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Durant, and Karl Malone.

On a per-75 possession basis, Embiid’s scoring title rivals Shaq’s best scoring season (1997-98), when O’Neal had his most efficient high-volume season:

• 1997-98 Shaq: 30.1 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.6 blocks per 75 possessions, +6.3 relative True Shooting
• 2021-22 Embiid: 33.8 points, 13.0 rebounds, 1.6 blocks per 75 possessions, +5.0 relative True Shooting

As Embiid enters the heart of his prime (next year will be his age-28 season), there just aren’t many answers for him when he catches the ball in the mid-post. He’s at the point of his career where he’s making quicker decisions, protecting the ball as he drives north to south, and mastering the art of his in-between game. He doesn’t have to get to the rim every time, or rely on the whistle to give him freebies. For a seven-footer who constantly sees multiple bodies thrown his way, his footwork and mid-range creation are still expanding.

The same applies to Antetokounmpo, who keeps unlocking new scoring avenues. The reigning Finals MVP could’ve taken the (short) offseason to rest, regroup, and celebrate after Milwaukee finally knocked down the door and achieved its goal. He could’ve entered this season the same player with virtually no improvements and still been considered the most feared playoff performer.

That’s not what happened.

His first major change was becoming a more consistent free throw shooter in the clutch, which was simply building off of the Game 6 Finals masterpiece last July. This year, he shot a career-high 73.7% from the line in “clutch” minutes. He also generated 10-plus free throw attempts in 46 total games (69% of his availability), building on his previous career-high of 35 games (57.4% of last year’s availability).

But most importantly, Antetokounmpo’s mid-range attack became an actual weapon against defenses. He developed a healthy counter to opponents loading up on the strong side and shutting off the paint. The advancement to a respectable mid-range creator has taken longer than expected, but it’s finally here:

• 2018-19 Giannis: 40-of-116 in the mid-range (34.5%)
• 2019-20 Giannis: 45-of-116 in the mid-range (38.8%)
• 2020-21 Giannis: 51-of-143 in the mid-range (35.7%)
• 2021-22 Giannis: 85-of-205 in the mid-range (41.5%)

Combine that with his year-to-year progression as a playmaker – both in his inverted pick-and-roll looks and from a stationary post position – and you have someone who should be a favorite to reach the Finals every season.

For Devin Booker, things get rather interesting. If this were 2005, or maybe even 2010, I believe Booker would receive majority of the votes due to his spectacular two-way season on the NBA’s best team (by a mile).

And yes, I said two-way season, because the idea of Booker being a negative defender should’ve died three years ago. When Monty Williams took over for the Suns in 2019, he made it a priority to get everyone on the same page defensively. He challenged his star players to take it personally when they’re targeted on defense, and to focus on the details of what it requires to be a playoff contender.

Booker has quickly transformed into a flat-out quality defender. He invites the switches when necessary, makes crisp rotations to help his teammates, and uses his feet better than most guards, particularly in one-on-one situations.

Ten or twelve years ago, if there was a player scoring over 26 points per game, improving as a defender each week, and completely dominating opponents in fourth quarters for the No. 1 seed, they would be the front-runner.

However, it just goes back to how special the talent pool is in today’s game. For Jokić, Antetokounmpo, and Embiid to all have more impressive individual seasons, it proves how differently we look at the MVP award in this era. We didn’t really see statistical anomalies to this degree. Admittedly, it’s hard to determine whether or not Booker’s 2022 résumé should be deemed more impressive than the three giants, all of which do nearly everything for their respective teams.

Although Booker has been the Suns’ MVP, especially after leading them to an 11-4 record during Chris Paul’s injury rehab, Phoenix has such a buzzsaw of a team from top to bottom. On the surface, it doesn’t feel right to penalize a player for having such a deep and well-rounded group. But the MVP discourse has shifted dramatically over the last 10 years. To me, it’s always more about who had the most outstanding season, and less about rewarding the “best player on the best team.”

If you were to make Booker’s case for the MVP this year, nothing stands out more than his destruction in the clutch. In those 96 minutes, he scored 94 points on 20-of-29 shooting from two (69.0%), 9-of-22 from three (40.9%), and 27-of-35 at the line (77.1%). The Suns outscored their opponents by 97 points during his clutch minutes, and he only turned it over four times.

While he and the Suns might view this as a snub, I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue with taking home Finals MVP over the regular season MVP.

Ultimately, the choice for fifth place in this race came down to Luka Dončić or Jayson Tatum. It’s an agonizing choice when you dig deep into their individual seasons. Both had scintillating runs in the second half of the schedule. And on paper, their per-minute numbers are extremely similar.

After a very rocky start to the season, Tatum’s Celtics were 25-25 and searching for answers in late January. Then, largely due to his ascension and Boston locking up everyone defensively, they finished the year 26-6 with the best net rating in basketball (+14.8) during that span.

You can’t ignore how much of an impact Tatum had on the Celtics’ late push. Per Cleaning The Glass, with him on the floor, Boston’s offense was 10.3 points better (per 100 possessions) than his minutes on the bench. That differential was in the 98th percentile among all players this season. On the defensive end, Boston was 6.2 points better per 100 possessions when he played – ranking in the 91st percentile among all players.

Tatum regressed slightly as a pull-up shooter from deep, but got into the paint more and increased his free throw attempt rate. It was something bugging the Celtics since the day he got drafted, and he finally started generating counters for the nights his jumper isn’t working.

With Boston and Dallas finishing just one win apart in the standings, I didn’t consider team success as a determining factor.

Dončić just had the better overall season, from start to finish, and continues to do marvelous things with the ball in his hands. He was second in the league in total drives per game with 22.2, increasing his usage from last season and leaning further into everything he was already doing at world-class rate. He shot 55.5% on those drives compared to Tatum’s 48.8% on nearly half the volume.

As a precision passer, the only players in basketball that can sit at the same table as Dončić are Jokić, LeBron, and CP3. He has reached that level of surgical expertise, to the point where it’s a death sentence to send help on his drives. Without even thinking about it, he’ll sling passes to every spot on the floor once you collapse into the paint. They will come from every direction, at various speeds, and hit shooters right in the pocket every time.

When Jason Kidd took over the Mavericks’ job, the idea was supposed to be to spread the wealth a bit more and take some pressure away from Dončić. Due to the nature of Dallas’ season and parting ways with Kristaps Porzingis, it hasn’t quite worked out that way.

Luka has excelled in this role since the moment he stepped on the floor. And this is the best shape he’s ever been in.

Here’s something crazy about Luka’s first four seasons. Only 264 games into his career, Dončić has totaled 6,962 points and 2,102 assists.

What did LeBron James have for the first 264 games of his career? 7,008 points and 1,731 assists.

Think about how we view LeBron in the light of NBA legends and the pantheon of greatness, especially now with him climbing the total points and assists lists. If there is someone who has a real chance to overtake him in both of those categories, shatter records, and ultimately match him in regular season MVPs, it’s Dončić.