Here’s Why Finland And Sweden Might Join NATO

Topline

The prime ministers of Sweden and Finland said at a press conference Wednesday they’re strongly considering joining NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—a move that would ensure alliance members would come to their defense should Russia invade, but that Moscow has warned would lead to retaliation.

Protestors show their support for Ukraine on March 5 in Helsinki, Finland.

Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a 30-country alliance that’s most notably joined together by a “collective defense” agreement that means “an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies” requiring other countries to aid the attacked country militarily.

Finland and Sweden, which neighbor each other, maintained neutrality toward the Soviet Union through the Cold War, which sparked NATO’s formation, but are considering joining the alliance now in light of Russia’s invasion, which has provoked fears that Moscow could invade Nordic countries next (Norway, another nearby Nordic country, is already a NATO member).

Finland shares its eastern border with Russia—it declared its independence from Russia in 1917 and the Soviet Union invaded the country in 1939—and while Sweden doesn’t share a land border with Russia, DW notes Moscow could use Gottland, a Swedish island in the Baltic Sea, to attack Sweden if there was a conflict in the region.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish PM Sanna Marin told reporters Wednesday both countries are now conducting reviews of whether to join NATO as a result, with Marin noting, “Everything changed when Russia invaded Ukraine.”

Marin said a decision about whether Finland will join was likely “weeks” away, and Reuters reports Sweden’s review of the issue is expected to finish by the end of May; DW reports both countries are likely to seek membership by June.

If the countries decide to join NATO, Russia could lash out in response—Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said Russia would “rebalance the situation” if Finland and Sweden joined, and Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in February the move would be met with “military and political consequences.”

Crucial Quote

“There is a before and after the 24th of February,” Andersson said Wednesday, referring to the date Russia invaded Ukraine. “The security landscape has completely changed.”

Chief Critic

“We have repeatedly said that the alliance itself is more of a tool for confrontation,” Peskov said in April about the Kremlin’s stance on Finland and Sweden’s potential NATO membership. “This is not an alliance that provides peace and stability, and further expansion of the alliance, of course, will not lead to more stability on the European continent.”

What To Watch For

Joining NATO will likely be a months or years-long process for Finland and Sweden, as countries seeking membership must go through formal discussions with NATO leaders and get the approval of all other member countries before they can join. (In the U.S., a two-thirds majority of senators would have to vote in favor of the countries joining.) Finland and Sweden are likely to have an easier time of it than other countries have had, however, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the countries have already met the alliance’s standards for “political, democratic, civilian control over the security institutions and the armed forces.” Elisabeth Braw, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted in a Politico op-ed it’s likely the countries would also receive an invitation from NATO to start the process much more quickly than the years-long wait other nations have had. Even before the Nordic countries officially join NATO, Stoltenberg said he’s “certain that the alliance will find ways to address concerns about the period between potential application and ratification,” the Washington Post reports, meaning NATO could provide some protections if Russia tries to retaliate against Finland or Sweden before they formally become members.

Surprising Fact

Even before they join NATO, Finland and Sweden will still have military alliances by virtue of being members of the European Union, as all EU members have an obligation under the bloc’s treaty to help other members if they’re attacked militarily. (NATO, crucially, would also obligate the U.S. to provide military help.) Marin and Andersson sent a letter to the president of the European Council in March reminding the EU of that commitment, if necessary.

Key Background

NATO has been a major factor in Russia’s escalating belligerence toward Ukraine over the past 14 years and in aiding Ukraine against Russia in the current war. President George W. Bush’s insistence that NATO extend an open-ended invitation for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO provoked a strong reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who bridled at the prospect of the military alliance creeping closer to Russia. While NATO member countries are not intervening militarily in Ukraine, given that Ukraine is not itself a NATO member, the alliance and its members have provided extensive aid to Ukraine throughout the conflict. NATO has doubled its military presence in Eastern Europe in response to Russia’s invasion, the BBC notes, and member countries have donated significant military aid and equipment to help Ukraine’s military.

Tangent

Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO anytime soon. Though Ukraine’s Constitution has an amendment committing it to pursuing NATO membership, the country’s bid to join is hampered by the fact it likely still doesn’t meet the alliance’s requirements for commitments to democracy, the New York Times notes, and would need to carry out more anti-corruption reforms in order to join. NATO also asks its members to militarily be “adding to the security of the alliance and not detracting from it,” Rafael Loss, a coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Euronews, and NATO would not likely want to be ensnarled in Ukraine’s unsettled territorial disputes with Russia over Crimea and the Donbas region.

Here’s Why Finland And Sweden Might Join NATO — And Why It Matters