How The Sixers Could Benefit From A Higher-Than-Expected 2022-23 NBA Salary Cap

The NBA’s projected salary cap for the 2022-23 season just keeps going up.

On Thursday, the NBA informed teams that next year’s salary cap is now projected to be $122 million and the luxury-tax threshold is projected to be $149 million, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. That’s $1 million and $2 million higher than the previous projections from early February, respectively, per Charania.

The league won’t officially set next year’s salary cap until early July, but Thursday’s news should be music to the ears of the Philadelphia 76ers and other projected taxpayers.

The Sixers are headed into a pivotal offseason regardless of how they fare in the playoffs. James Harden can become a free agent by declining his $47.4 million player option for next season, although he’s widely expected to stay in Philadelphia one way or another.

At the moment, the Sixers have seven players on guaranteed contracts for next season—Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid, Furkan Korkmaz, Georges Niang, Matisse Thybulle, Tyrese Maxey and Jaden Springer—for roughly $88.9 million. If they pick up Shake Milton’s $2.0 million team option and guarantee the contracts of end-of-bench reserves Isaiah Joe ($1.8 million), Paul Reed ($1.8 million) and Charles Bassey ($1.6 million), they’d be at $96.1 million on their books.

If Harden declines his player option to become a free agent, he’ll be eligible for a starting salary of $46.5 million and a five-year contract just shy of $270 million. He could also pick up his $47.4 million player option and sign a four-year, $223 million extension, bringing the total value of his deal just above $270 million. Either way, the Sixers aren’t going to have salary-cap space this summer unless Harden unexpectedly leaves.

Any additional breathing room around the luxury-tax threshold could behoove them, though.

If Harden opts out and takes the slightly smaller $46.5 million starting salary, the Sixers would be at $142.6 million with 12 players under contract. They’ll also have to weigh whether to pick up Danny Green’s $10 million team option, which would push them over the current projected tax threshold if Harden decides to take a full max contract.

The Sixers’ bigger concern may be the luxury-tax apron, which is projected to come in at nearly $155.7 million based on the latest estimates.

Teams don’t get access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception—which is projected to be roughly $10.3 million next season—if they’d finish over the apron after spending it. Instead, they’re limited to the smaller taxpayer mid-level exception, which is projected to just shy of $6.4 million next year. They also don’t have access to the bi-annual exception ($4.05 million next season), so above-the-apron teams are limited to only the TMLE and minimum signings.

Teams above the apron also aren’t allowed to be on the receiving end of sign-and-trades, which could be a consideration for the Sixers this offseason. Former NBA center Andrew Bogut said earlier this year that Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal is reportedly “trying to get to Philadelphia in the offseason” to team up with Embiid and Harden, but the only realistic pathway would be a sign-and-trade.

If (when) Beal declines his $36.4 million player option for next season, he’ll be eligible for a starting salary of $42.7 million based on a $122 million cap. The Sixers could use Harris’ bloated contract for salary-matching purposes—he’s owed $37.6 million next year—but they’d have to finish under the $155.7 million apron after a sign-and-trade involving Beal or any other player.

The Brooklyn Nets could further complicate the Sixers’ offseason plans. The Sixers traded their fully unprotected 2022 first-round pick to the Nets as part of the package for Harden at the deadline, although the Nets can (and likely will) choose to defer that pick until 2023 instead. The Sixers’ pick figures to land in the early-to-mid-20s this season, but it could be in the lottery next year if Embiid and/or Harden miss extended time with an injury.

If the Sixers do keep their first-round pick this year, that will add roughly $2 million in guaranteed salary in their books. That might not sound like much, but every dollar counts if they’re hoping to stay under the tax apron for a sign-and-trade or to use the non-taxpayer MLE.

The Sixers might not be envisioning such a drastic offseason shakeup. If they find another impact signing with their taxpayer MLE like they did last year with Georges Niang, they should feel confident with their top seven or eight players heading into next season. In that case, the increased cap and tax lines would only benefit them by trimming their tax bill by a few million.

With team president Daryl Morey at the helm, though, no one should rule out some offseason fireworks. Although Harris has been playing better after a rocky start to the Harden era, it’s fair to wonder whether he’s the ideal big-money star to play alongside Harden and Embiid. The Sixers figure to at least explore their options with him this summer, even if it isn’t via sign-and-trade.

Having an extra few million in breathing room below the apron—particularly if they decline Green’s team option—could give them more flexibility to pull off a big offseason overhaul. If Harden is amenable to taking a slight discount rather than a full five-year, $270 million max contract, they might even gain access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception with a few minor moves (such as salary-dumping Korkmaz).

The Sixers don’t have to make any of those decisions today, but those bigger-picture questions will be hanging over them as they enter a pivotal postseason.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.