Genomic Analysis Of 2022 Oscar Nominees

We are all wondering which films will win Oscars tonight. All eyes are on Best Picture nominees and there are plenty of critics making those predictions. I want to take a different angle, trying to assess the extent to which data alone, as opposed to watching the movies, can help compare and contrast the nominees. With this analysis, you can evaluate Best Picture nominees along the same dimensions, as you decide which one you will root for. Of course, we know that there is some level of subjectivity in the choice of Oscar winners. So the intention here is not to predict, but to show how data and analytics can provide meaningful, objective insights across films.

I used data provided by Katch, which classifies movies by leveraging its proprietary set of more than 2,500 features or genes for each movie. A set of genes, together, can lead to a higher level genomic trait. For example, ‘the intellectual themes’ trait is dominant in this year’s nominees. It triggers in Katch’s data in the presence of genes like moral, socio-cultural, or philosophical issues, and thoughtful, intelligent, or articulate lead characters.

Katch uses these data to find out how and why films, TV series, and other content resonate with different audiences, which can inform marketing executives, producers, copywriters and more. I leverage the data to examine how this year’s Best Picture nominees compare to the history and trends of prior Oscar nominations and winners.

Characteristics of Best Picture Nominees

Some findings in the data are simple and intuitive. A consistent statistic since 2010, including this year, is that over half of the Best Picture nominees and winners have the trait ‘a unique and defining directorial vision’. Also, it turns out that 7 of the 10 nominees this year have the trait ‘american story’, consistent with the share of nominees with that trait in the last decade, which is 68%. Perhaps this reflects that the majority of members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are from the U.S., although the Academy has made significant strides in recruiting international members. Similarly, 7 of 10 nominees this year have the trait ‘urban tales’.

So what does this tell us? That the location and setting of the 2022 Best Picture nominees is pretty homogeneous, so other essential aspects of the films such as screenplay, production, music, visual effects, and actors will be important differentiators. This year, The Power of the Dog and Dune have 11 and 9 nominations respectively in related Oscar categories, so they stand out.

Music also seems to correlate with Best Picture status. Even though under 10% of movies and only 12% of Oscars nominees from the last decade have piano-focused scores, 40% of winners have had this trait. Drive My Car and CODA, the two films with piano-focused scores this year, have the edge in this dimension.

Trends in Best Picture nominees

A trend analysis of the Academy’s choices also provides interesting insights. One of the more interesting findings is that prior to 2016, the man-in-the-hole plot predominated among Best Picture nominees, but it has given way to a new favorite of the Academy: the Cinderella plot.

Man-in-the-hole plots are fall-rise plots (V form), that is, it all starts in a good place, something bad happens, and in the end there is redemption, victory, or happiness. 40% of Best Picture nominees had man-in-the-hole plots in 2010-2015, but since then they have fallen to 17%.

The Cinderella plot adds a ‘rise’ step at the beginning, so it’s a rise-fall-rise plot (N form). The share of Best Picture nominees with Cinderella plots has risen from 14% in 2010-2015 to 26% in 2016-2021. In light of this increasing preference of Cinderella plots by the Academy, this year’s two nominees with Cinderella plots stand out: CODA and Licorice Pizza.

In addition to plot arcs, let’s look at the higher level trait of what drives the story more broadly, including whether it’s ‘plot-driven’, ‘character-driven’, or ‘issue-driven’. The share of Best Picture nominees that were ‘issue driven’ in 2016-2021 was 35%, almost twice as much as in 2010-2015. The fact that the Academy is increasingly nominating films that gravitate towards deep issues favors the two 2022 nominees that are ‘issue-driven’: Power of the Dog and King Richard.

The predictive power of content analytics

I have to confess I didn’t know much about these movies before diving into the data, nor have I even watched a trailer. This would normally come in early in the analysis as a caveat, but in this case, it’s a bonus because it illustrates the power of data to objectively evaluate media and entertainment content.

You have to watch for biases with no data. My bias upfront would have been towards West Side Story, because I like this musical and musicals in general, and I admire Steven Spielberg. On the other hand, watching the movie and understanding the talent involved and the production budget is critical to make the right predictions. I hope this nerdy evaluation of Best Picture nominees provides insights not just to complete your predictions, but to show the value of objective, data-driven analytics of films and other video content.