Russia Claims To Have Used A Hypersonic Weapon In The Ukraine

On March 18, 2022, the Russian military claimed to have used a hypersonic weapon to destroy an underground weapons depot in western Ukraine. Although Ukraine has confirmed the attack, they have not confirmed the type of weapon. If these claims are true, this incident will mark the first time that a hypersonic weapon has been used in combat. The deployment of a hypersonic weapon has large implications for the Russia-Ukraine war as well as the global defense community.

Russia first unveiled its arsenal of hypersonic weapons in March 2018, initiating the next generation in missile technology. Current missile technology consists of ballistic and cruise missiles. While ballistic missiles are fast, they lack the ability to maneuver. Meanwhile, cruise missiles can maneuver but are relatively slow. Due to their limitations, modern air-defense systems are adequately able to detect, track, and destroy both types of missiles. Meanwhile, hypersonic weapons combine the speed of ballistic missiles with the maneuverability of cruise missiles. They can deliver a conventional or nuclear payloads, maneuvering at speeds in excess of 10,000 mph, exceeding the capabilities of current missile tracking systems.

Russia along with China are the only two countries that currently have offensive hypersonic weapons, with Russia having publicly disclosed two lines of weapons. The first is the Avangard missile which is released from an intercontinental ballistic missile and can reach speeds of Mach 20. The second is the Kinzhal missile which is launched from a MiG-31K or Tu-22M3. These weapons can reach speeds of Mach 10, although there is some skepticism to their actual speed and range. The recent strike was reportedly carried out by a Kinzhal missile released from a MiG-31K.

Over the last few years, other countries are scrambling to develop their own hypersonic weapons, including the United States, North Korea, India, France, and Australia. While progress has been made by all of these countries, none of them currently have functioning weapons in their arsenal. Meanwhile, no country — including China and Russia — has a system that can track or destroy an incoming hypersonic weapon. The United States appears the furthest along with its Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor, which is a satellite system intended to detect and track hypersonic weapons. However, the full constellation of satellites will not be online until at least 2025.

There is some uncertainty as to why the Russians would use such a powerful weapon, especially given the cost and limited number of missiles available. Their decision to use a hypersonic weapon could indicate a lack of conventional missiles forcing the Russians to use their newer, more expensive weapons. Alternatively, the weapon cache may have been considered an important target and the Russians wanted to ensure a successful strike, given the success of Ukrainian air-defense systems. Both of these cases are unlikely.

The more likely culprit is that the Kremlin is trying to send a message through their use of a hypersonic weapon. So far in the war, the Russian military has been embarrassed by the poor state of their equipment. Their tanks have been breaking down and their drones have been ineffective. Even their cyber-attack preceding the invasion only managed to take down a few government websites. The use of hypersonic weapons could be part of an effort to re-establish their image as a military juggernaut. The Russian military has historically leveraged this image as an important aspect of their psychological operation campaigns.

The Kremlin is likely also using the hypersonic weapon to send a clear warning to NATO that it should back away from the conflict. If the conflict with Ukraine escalates and NATO enters the fight, the Kremlin is indicating a willingness to use their hypersonic weapons against NATO targets. And if the conflict escalates into nuclear war, Russia would have the capacity to send nuclear weapons that NATO cannot defend against. While unlikely that the war would escalate to that level, it is still a factor that NATO would need to consider.

The use of hypersonic weapons has some interesting implications for the war in Ukraine. On one hand, it indicates that the Kremlin is willing to use non-conventional weapons in an attempt to defeat the Ukrainians. They may continue to use hypersonic weapons, while also introducing other cutting-edge weaponry, including those in the cyber and space domains. Alternatively, it could also be perceived as an act of desperation. Since their current tactics and weapons have not been effective, they want to instill fear into the Ukrainians by introducing their newest weapon into the battlefield.

Regardless, it has even larger implications for the global defense community, especially as it pertains to the hypersonics arms race. Once a weapon is used in combat, it creates a sense of urgency for each country to develop their own capabilities and defenses. In turn, this accelerates the arms race. Over the coming months, many countries will start prioritizing their hypersonic weapon programs, and the world will see massive growth in this weapon technology.