‘The Batman’ Tops $300 Million Domestic

With legs closer to Aquaman than Man of Steel, DC Comics’ latest solo superhero franchise launcher remained unusually strong in weekend three. Matt Reeves and Peter Craig’s 175-minute Dark Knight Detective thriller earned another $36.8 million in weekend three, dropping just 45% for a new $300.1 million domestic cume. Yes, the Robert Pattinson/Zoë Kravitz/Paul Dano/Jeffrey Wright flick passed the triple-century mark on day 17, passing Henry Cavill’s Man of Steel ($291 million) to become the second-biggest straight-up/clean slate reboot after Spider-Man: Homecoming. The Tom Holland-led Spidey reboot had the benefit of the MCU, including a much-advertised extended cameo from Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, and it still “only” earned $334 million from a $117 million domestic debut.

The Batman’s 45% drop will sit (in terms of third-weekend drops for major comic book/superhero flicks) alongside the likes of Shazam! (-32% in 2019), Aquaman (-40% in 2018), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (+15% in 2018), Wonder Woman (-29% in 2017), The Matrix (-20% in 1999), Blade (-21% whose third weekend was Labor Day in 1998), The Crow (-34% whose third weekend was Memorial Day in 1994), Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves (-28% in 1991), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (-25% in 1990) and Batman (-36% in 1989). I’m expecting The Lost City to be less of an issue for The Batman than was Avengers: Endgame to Shazam. Nor do I think it will be impacted by a swift(er) HBO Max arrival.

Sing 2 has been on PVOD since day 17 of its theatrical release and it has still earned $157 million from a $39.5 million Wed-Sun Christmas debut. A Quiet Place part II earned $161 million from a $57.1 million Fri-Mon Memorial Day weekend debut, which A) is just 15% less than A Quiet Place’s $188 million launch and B) was still a high-for-Memorial Day 2.8x multiplier from that four-day debut. F9 was the leggiest Fast Saga sequel ($173 million/$70 million) since 2 Fast 2 Furious ($127 million/$50 million) in 2003. No Time to Die arrived on PVOD on day 31 yet was leggier ($161 million/$55 million) than both Spectre ($200 million/$70 million) and Quantum of Solace ($167 million/$67 million).

As we’ve seen since at least last May, the films that would have played well before Covid have mostly still broken out accordingly after delays or amid Covid variables and shorter windows. Moreover, we haven’t seen any big hit movies that just dropped dead after a 31 day or 45 day theatrical window. This may be because the audience that would already wait for “priced to rent” availability in 90 days aren’t now magically going to fork over $20 to rent after 31 days or to sign up for a streaming service after 45 days. Or it may be because audiences don’t yet know how these new distribution windows work and are choosing the path of least resistance.

As far as Warner Bros. titles go, it’s not like Malignant, The Matrix Reloaded or In The Heights would have been blockbusters absent the HBO Max concurrent availability, but it’s possible that Dune, Godzilla Vs. Kong or The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It might have earned a few more bucks in theaters. The Batman doesn’t have that issue, at least not yet. The only caveat, and if I’m wrong this is why, is that frankly HBO Max has a higher profile among streaming platforms compared to something like Peacock (where Halloween Kills still earned $92 million from a $49 million debut despite concurrent availability) or Paramount+ (where Paw Patrol still topped $40 million despite likewise).

At this rate of descent, The Batman could spend next weekend sailing past the $315-$335 million likes of Thor: Ragnorak, Iron Man, Deadpool 2, Suicide Squad, Batman v Superman, Guardians of the Galaxy, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Aquaman and Joker. Once it passes Deadpool ($363 million), we’re looking at a possible domestic finish behind (at worst) almost every “first movie” superhero franchise flick save for Spider-Man ($402 million), Wonder Woman ($413 million), Captain Marvel ($427 million) and Black Panther ($700 million). No, none of this accounts for inflation (Superman would have $525 million in 2022 grosses and Batman’s $251 million cume around be around $576 million today), but it may pass all but those handful of supernova flicks even adjusted for inflation by the end.

It bombed in China with just $12 million, a victim of obvious Covid circumstances (43% of the theaters were closed amid a resurgence) and a declining interest in Hollywood exports (a pattern that began long before Covid). Batman has always been a domestic-centric franchise, so an eventual 50/50 split isn’t out of the norm. The film earned $49.1 million overseas this weekend for an $85.9 million global weekend gross, bringing its global IMAX total to $47.6 million. The Batman has earned $598.2 million worldwide, meaning my “The Batman tops $600 million worldwide” post can wait until tomorrow. Presuming a conventional rate of descent, we’re looking at a global cume of around $775 million, or just over/under No Time to Die ($774 million).

We’ll see how The Batman fares starting next week when it’s no longer the only game in town, as The Lost City leads to Morbius which kicks off an unexpectedly crowded April (Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, etc.) prior to the summer season. But so far the legs on this movie have been exceptional, and if it “only” plays like Aquaman, Logan, Joker or Captain Marvel from this point it’ll still end with between $375 million (past Guardians of the Galaxy) and $410 million domestic (past Iron Man 3 and Captain America: Civil War). The film’s success again shows that, if you have the right movie, the box office can still party like it’s 2018.