Key Allies Buy New F-35s As Pentagon Cuts Program

As the Cold War faded, the U.S. took a big gamble that the nation would need the advanced F-35 Lightning II fighter-bomber. And, after two decades, America’s big bet has, for all intents and purposes, been proven correct as advanced technologies are coming on-line to counter a resurgent Russia and an increasingly aggressive China. Today, the F-35 is the standard for top-tier air forces throughout the world. But this under-estimated and hard-won framework for global success may crumble away as the Pentagon, eager for the “next big thing,” begins pulling the rug out from under the F-35 program, hitting it with an abrupt 35% cut to next year’s order book.

Observers expect next year’s Air Force order will be chopped by a third, the Marine Corps will buy 25% fewer aircraft, and the Navy will slash purchases of the marinized F-35C by half. In total, 33 aircraft will be cut from an expected procurement of 94.

This drastic cut makes little sense. With the F-35 working and with fifteen countries currently operating or committed to operate F-35s, disengaging from the program is difficult for the Pentagon to defend. No alternatives are in public view, and the F-35 is well on the way to becoming the global fighter it was originally intended to be.

Doctrinally, the production cut is hard to justify. Certainly, the new National Defense Strategy has yet to emerge from the depths of the Pentagon, but President Joe Biden’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance supports the F-35’s value proposition. The Interim Guidance highlights the international threats the F-35 was crafted to meet. It also urges the reinvigoration and modernization of alliances and partnerships around the world. As such, the F-35 is already part of the “smart and disciplined” glue that keeps the U.S. a vital contributor to NATO and other critical alliances.

With a little effort, the Navy, Air Force, Congress, and the Administration can come together to take the win. There is still time for the Administraiton to roll back the proposed cuts, and, even if the Administration moves ahead, locking itself into a cost-constrained, “divest-to-reinvest” strategy, Service Secretaries can still encourage both the Navy and the Air Force to include the restoration of lost F-35’s in their respective Unfunded Priorities Lists, enabling Congress to debate both the value and future of the F-35 program.

The F-35 Works:

Despite the dire headlines from testing reports, the F-35 works. Put another way, the aircraft is no flying version of the Navy’s hapless Zumwalt class destroyer—a 22-billion-dollar catastrophe. And, even though, after fifteen years, only one of three Zumwalt-class destroyers is currently commissioned, the Pentagon seems set to allow those ships to wallow around, with no mission and no functional primary armament. In contrast, the F-35 is going to work every day in countries throughout the world.

It’s not something that the public hears much about due the classified nature of the F-35’s mission and capabilities.

As more defense agencies move to keep their “high-end” warfighting capabilities secret, F-35 success stories are rarely discussed or disclosed. The F-35’s first combat success was kept secret for a year. Just this month, the Israeli Defense Forces revealed the F-35’s first combat success. Twelve months ago, F-35I Adir fighters shot down two Iranian Shahad 197 drones in the “first operational interception of a UAV by an F-35I aircraft in the world,” with the Israeli aircraft precisely detecting, identifying and engaging their targets.

If demonstrated performance is insufficient, the conflict in Ukraine is reinforcing the value of the F-35’s ambitious focus on warfighter integration and alliance operations. In Ukraine’s contested airspace, Russia’s top-tier 4^th Generation Air Force platforms, unable to integrate effectively with other Russian warfighting systems, have completely failed to live up to their robust reputation. Russia’s arsenal of electronic warfare systems—systems that observers feared would hopelessly scramble the F-35’s ambitious integration and sensor networking capabilities—have proven to be far more vulnerable and fragile than expected.

The daunting computing and simulation challenges enmeshed with the 5^th generation F-35 platform are paying enormous dividends. The work completed on the F-35 will help keep the United States in the lead as warfighters endeavor to bring other platforms—friendly aircraft, networked UAVs, attritable drones and other warfighting networks—together.

Let’s get this right before cutting production and dashing off to procure the next new thing.

The F-35 is Democracy’s Arsenal:

Even worse, if Congress permits the Pentagon to step away from the F-35 program now, it leaves important members of key U.S. alliances high and dry. By slashing procurement and potentially driving the platform into a-death spiral, where unit and operational costs spike to the point where customers balk, the Pentagon risks throwing away America’s global dominance in air warfare and, potentially consigning the program to an early termination.

Big, abrupt cuts send a terrible message to NATO, making a mockery of President Biden’s clear guidance on alliance-building. Defense leaders throughout Europe are taking real risks to support the F-35. What does it say to walk back America’s F-35 program of record just as foreign orders are pouring in? Late last year, Finland committed to 64 F-35A’s, beating out both high-end and low-end competitors from Boeing, Dassault, Saab and the Eurofighter consortium. Last week, in something of a surprise, Germany signed up, replacing aging Tornado fighter-bombers with 35 F-35As. Even cost-conscious, economy-minded Switzerland bought F-35s.

At sea, until Russia wiggles out from sanctions and China starts delivering carrier-ready aircraft, the marinized F-35B and F-35C jets are the sole modern aircraft available for countries looking to generate aircraft carrier capability. For the next few decades, the F-35 will be the platform of choice for friendly navies.

Across the globe, other countries are mulling their options as they modernize their air forces. And with poorly-integrated Russian aircraft failing to demonstrate their effectiveness over Ukraine, the F-35—and the painstaking effort to seamlessly fuse the platform into cohesive sensor constellations—is starting to look like the last remaining option for countries that aspire to field a modern air force.

As Russia’s airborne offerings are now out of favor, the Pentagon’s efforts to save a few pennies risks pushing potential “unaligned” buyers to re-evaluate their options. And if the only other viable top-tier offering is Chinese, the machinations of the Pentagon’s green-eyeshade strategists will have unintentionally tossed a lifeline to America’s primary technological competitor.

In short, every extra F-35 purchase helps control F-35 program costs. And with every purchase, the global industrial base deepens, offering the U.S. F-35 fleet an extra measure of resiliency. Wide employment of the F-35 grants American policymakers far more opportunities to leverage easy coordination with overseas partners.

Few other platforms in the U.S. arsenal have done more to irreversibly entangle the U.S. in alliance structures that are, today, proving their value in standing tall against creeping authoritarianism.

Let’s Debate the F-35 Value Proposition:

In Washington DC, the technology wrapped into the F-35 is becoming “old news” and Pentagon technologists are, in the name of “divest-to-reinvest,” looking to the hot new thing.

We already know how that story goes. In a decade or so, once the next “big new thing” fails to live up to its full potential, Washington will be scrambling to keep America’s attenuated F-35 fleet operational and mulling fantastical initaitves to resurrect long-dead F-35 production lines.

The F-35 has come a long way. A surprise 35% procurement cut, right now, is a penalty only meted out to the poorest-performing programs. It is a step that deserves to be evaluated by Congress, and, if the Pentagon is forcing the Air Force and Navy to limit their purchases, endangering America’s goal of a 2400-strong F-35 fleet, the services should add their missing F-35s to their Unfunded Priorities Lists, and have Congress open the debate on the F-35’s value proposition. We may find that, in this case, the much-abused F-35 is worth every penny—and more.