Topline
Russia’s military is approaching the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv from several directions in a possible effort to encircle the city, but its forces have been stalled for several days, partly due to stiff resistance from Ukrainian troops, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Monday.
Residents of the Kyiv suburb of Irpin flee heavy fighting via a destroyed bridge as Russian forces … [+]
Key Facts
Russian ground forces remain about 9.3 miles northwest of the center of Kyiv—virtually unchanged since Thursday—and are operating near an airport in the town of Hostomel, a region stricken by heavy fighting for more than a week, the official said.
The Russian military is also trying to approach Kyiv from two lines east of the city, but they are still roughly 12.4 to 18.6 miles away from Kyiv, according to the official, and Ukrainian forces still control Brovary, an eastern suburb Russia tried to enter last week.
Chernihiv—a city of 300,000 about 80 miles north of Kyiv—has been “isolated” by Russia for days, but forces haven’t progressed past Chernihiv and toward the capital.
Meanwhile, ground forces remain on the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, but the U.S. official said they have made “no apparent progress” toward the eastern city of 1.4 million, which was devastated by aerial attacks early in the war.
Some Russian vehicles appeared to bypass Kharkiv and proceed southeast toward the city of Izyum, which the Pentagon believes could be an attempt to link up with Russian forces in southern Ukraine and block off the country’s east.
Key Background
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine almost three weeks ago, many of its troops began to approach Kyiv. Civilians have reportedly died while trying to flee fighting near northwestern Kyiv suburbs like Irpin, and American and British officials think Russia eventually hopes to surround the capital city of nearly 3 million, part of a purported effort to oust Ukraine’s government and replace it with a pro-Russian regime (Russia has denied any interest in overthrowing the government or occupying Ukraine). However, Russian forces have moved toward Kyiv at a fairly slow clip due to a combination of supply shortages, resistance from Ukrainian fighters and morale issues, according to the Pentagon and U.K. Ministry of Defense.
Contra: Russia has appeared to make more progress in southern Ukraine, after invading through the Crimean Peninsula. The cities of Kherson and Melitopol are reportedly controlled by Russia, and Mariupol has been surrounded by Russian forces and pummeled by aerial attacks.
What To Watch For
Portions of the massive Russian military convoy spotted outside Kyiv two weeks ago began to disperse late last week, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense and satellite imagery company Maxar Technologies. These units may be preparing to “support a Russian attempt to encircle the city,” according to a U.K. defense intelligence update Saturday. If Russia begins pushing to surround Kyiv, the effort could take one or two weeks, an unnamed U.S. official told NBC Thursday, but taking over the sprawling city may take a month or more.
Tangent
The cruise missiles that hit a Ukrainian military facility near the Polish border on Sunday—killing at least 35 people, according to local officials—appeared to be launched from long-range bombers flying in Russian airspace, a senior U.S. defense official said.
Further Reading:
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/03/14/russian-forces-stalled-outside-kyiv-us-says/