Poland’s MiG-29 Fighters May Not Be Of Much Help To Ukraine

U.S. efforts to broker a deal to send Polish MiGs to Ukraine may be close to paying off.

Poland announced Tuesday that it’s willing to hand its 28 old Soviet-made MiG-29s to the United States. But at a price: it wants used American fighters – probably F-16s – in return.

“The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America,” according to an announcement by Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes. The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.”

The Polish aircraft would first fly to Ramstein, a major air base and U.S. Air Force headquarters in Europe. From there, they presumably would move to Ukrainian airfields.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, NATO and the European Union have debated sending jets to Ukraine, whose air force is badly outnumbered by Russia’s. Despite pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for warplanes, the EU has decided to not to send aircraft. That left the United States, which has been trying to arrange a three-way swap in which Ukraine gets Polish MiG-29s, and Poland replaces the MiGs with F-16s — of which it already operates 48 F-16C/D models– from the U.S.

But is this really a good deal for Ukraine? It’s natural that Ukraine would want aid for its air force, which is still fighting despite predictions that it would only last a couple of days against Russian airpower superior in numbers and advanced technology. So far, Ukrainian aircraft are continuing to fly missions and the country’s air defenses are taking a toll of Russian aircraft. The Russian Air Force has also been a surprise, with a disappointing performance that has neither ensured Russian air superiority over the battlefield or delivered meaningful close air support to the ground troops.

Nonetheless, there are reasons to question whether the MiGs would be of more than symbolic value to Ukraine. Because Ukraine was a former part of the Soviet Union, its military operates – and is trained to operate — the sort of Soviet-era equipment that still comprises much of Russia’s arsenal. It would take years for Ukrainian pilots and mechanics to adapt to complex Western equipment, which means its choices for new aircraft are limited to aging Soviet planes –the MiG-29 first flew in 1977 – that former Warsaw Pact nations are junking.

And where would Ukrainian MiGs fly from? Russia has begun targeting Ukrainian airfields with long-range missiles, and Ukraine lacks the capacity to defend those sites against ballistic and cruise missiles. As Egypt discovered in 1967, an air force that can’t protect its airbases is doomed.

Can Ukrainian aircraft operate from bases in neighboring countries such as Poland, as Chinese MiG-15s did from their “MiG Alley” sanctuaries in Manchuria during the Korean War? Only if those nations are willing to risk Russian retaliation, and so far, they don’t appear to take the risk.

When mechanized armies of tanks and artillery meet in battle, airpower can be decisive, as the Nazi blitzkrieg proved. But for the sort of warfare Ukraine has been waging – what seems to be a mixture of urban defense and hit-and-run ground and drone raids against Russian supply lines – handheld weapons might actually be more useful. Ukrainian anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles have taken a heavy toll of Russian armor and aircraft, and NATO and other nations are sending in more. They may be Ukraine’s best defense.

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