Bitcoin Crosses $44,000, New Wave or Spring 2018? – Trustnodes

Stocks were up a bit as well, but Nasdaq has turned red now, down 0.49% as of 5PM London time with it not too clear whether we might see a decoupling as it might be more bitcoin affecting Nasdaq rather than the other way around due to crypto stocks traded there.

Ethereum is lagging with its ratio down to 0.071 BTC from 0.075, clearly suggesting bitcoin is leading and that’s usually a good sign.

Another developing story that might be contributing to bitcoin’s rise is euro bonds which are spiking after the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, hinted rate hikes may be coming.

Markets expect an increase of 0.5% in euro interest rates by the end of the year, with yields on Italian 10 year bonds jumping to 1.64%, the highest since May 2020 and its biggest daily surge since March 2020.

There are no more negative-yielding bonds left in the European Union in a structural change for the economy that sees high inflation for the first time in decades.

That means it is already becoming more expensive for governments to pay their debts, with tough political choices coming amid potentially a recession later this year or in 2023 as spending is cut, taxes are raised, mortgages become more expensive, car loans, and the government becomes poorer.

The lack of maneuver due to inflation may also raise, at least above prior levels, any potential concerns regarding state level solvency both in Europe and US.

Some big bold vision will be needed to meet the coming challenges, with both EU and US currently distracted by other things, but soon enough you’d think the economy will be all things.

Any concerns about solvency, which may be minimal but higher than before, should lead to more wealth in assets outside of the fiat and banking system, like bitcoin.

It’s probably unlikely we’ll see any Greek level crisis however because the EU financially has merged quite a bit, but both Europe and America will need reforms if they are to get out of Japan-isation.

After a three months long crash, a recovery in bitcoin’s price was expected at some point, with the big question being whether this isn’t just a recovery but a proper bull run, or more a spring 2018 bounce to maybe $50,000 with endless down.

With new supply from miners now perhaps no longer a significant factor, the answer may well depend on moving factors that shift demand.

Galloping inflation in Turkey, very high inflation in US and Europe, a spike in Brazil which was cordoned previously from inflation despite troubles in Venezuela and Argentina, as well as a jump in inflation in Russia, all suggest bitcoin has a pretty much perfect macro environment where pure finance is concerned.

It is also envisionable now that some countries may fall financially. Lebanon has already, China is in big private market debt troubles, Italy never recovered from the 2008 crash, and frankly no one quite has a clue who might fall in an environment where what was free debt now becomes a massive cost.

With this story set to continue for at least some months, it may well be that bitcoin changes in how it is viewed from a ‘bundle it with risky assets’ in Wall Street casinos to hedge with the non-banking system in the family offices or indeed middle class homes.

As such there is arguably room for bitcoin to wave to maybe $80,000 by May with the 4 hour candles seemingly drawing a cup and handle.

Yet it may also downwards forever to 2024 with bounces as fiat strengthens, but in 2018 when fiat last strengthened, there wasn’t quite the at least conceptual concern about servicing a huge spike in debt, up $10 trillion in US since 2019 to $30 trillion from circa $20 trillion.

The same applies across all lockdown nations and if a recession comes, you’d think some states and some countries maybe engaged in some very creative accounting.

However, as the episode with El Salvador and IMF shows, banks can no longer quite threaten states or countries as they used to by having monopoly over marketing bonds as they can market them on our crypto network.

That obviously means more demand for crypto so it’s a win-win, with a more correct comparison to 2018 perhaps being that this $30,000 is currently holding just as much as $6,000 held back then.

If that is true, and eventually bitcoin did of course briefly fall to $3,000 after a big mess in BCH, then it may be the worst we get is a ‘recession,’ rather than a big bear freezing winter ravaged nation depression.

Also what may be different is that $20,000 was seen as crazy wow back then. This time we got stopped in midd way in our pleasure party as we didn’t quite get the big $100,000, let alone the $200,000 some thought, and so the bull is maybe still hungry after perhaps surviving winter as now spring is not far off.