Keith Thurman Vs. Mario Barrios: Odds, Records, Prediction

The way Keith Thurman figures it, he was 15 punches away from knocking out Manny Pacquiao in 2019. Despite getting knocked down himself in the first round, Thurman recovered and gave a good account of himself vs. Pacquiao in his unanimous decision lose. Though that fight was 30 months ago and though the oft-injured Thurman hasn’t competed since then, the thought that he sorta, almost could have beat the legendary Pacquiao gives him confidence for Saturday night’s fight vs. Mario Barrios. Here’s everything you need to know about Keith Thurman vs. Mario Barrios, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Five years ago, Thurman was a real player in the welterweight division. But he hasn’t won a big fight since 2017, and since then, Errol Spence, Terence Crawford and Yordenis Ugas have zoomed by him for 147-pound supremacy. Now, Barrios, who is coming off a loss to Gervonta “Tank” Davis at 140 pounds, will try to do the same in a new division.

“I don’t need to waste punches in this fight,” Thurman said this week. “I need to land the cleaner and sharper shots. I see the warrior spirit in Mario Barrios, and I believe he’s going to push me to fight harder. It’s exciting to be facing someone who wants to trade. He’s stepping up and facing me because he wants to make a name overnight. I respect that, but I’m here to stop him in his tracks.”

Barrios was a promising junior welterweight prospect, and in his last fight vs. Davis, he showed why. Though Barrios ultimately lost by 11^th-round stoppage, he gave Davis plenty of problems. Now, he’s looking to raise his stock even further by triumphing against Thurman.

“The fans are going to see the same Mario Barrios that has always stepped into the ring, but I’m going to be a lot stronger,” he said. “The speed and movement will be the same and I’m excited to show that. Every time I step into the ring, I bring that intensity and determination. You’re going to have to hit me with something crazy to get me out of there.”

The main question for this fight is whether Thurman still has the ability to outlast an intense fighter like Barrios. Considering he’s now 33 and considering he’s been so inactive in the past half-decade, it’ll be interesting to see if Thurman is as good as he once was.

Here’s more info on the Keith Thurman vs. Mario Barrios showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Fox PPV for $74.99 beginning at 9 p.m. ET.

Keith Thurman vs. Mario Barrios odds

Thurman has been a slight betting favorite since the fight was announced, and his money line has stayed steady. As of this writing, he was a -190 favorite (bet $190 to win $100) while Barrios is a +160 underdog (win $160 on a $100 bet). In the leadup to the fight, Thurman’s money line has ranged from -200 to -175. So, there hasn’t been much variation.

But if you like Barrios, the +160 is about as long as his odds have been, so now might be a good time to jump on it. Since Barrios is moving up in weight and since Thurman has showed a good chin throughout his career, I think there’s solid value with Barrios winning by decision at +333. If you want to get a better value on Thurman, you could either bet him to win by stoppage at +220 or by decision at +187.  

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Barrios to win at +160, Claressa Shields to beat Ema Kozin by decision at -200 and Chris Eubank Jr. to beat Liam Williams at -334. That would pay off $406 on a $100 bet.

Keith Thurman vs. Mario Barrios records

Although Thurman has only won once in the past five years—and even that was a shaky victory against a faded Josesito Lopez—he still has a solid resume. At 29-1 (22 KOs), Thurman has close victories against Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia, and he had more dominating wins against Robert Guerrero and Luis Collazo. Though he suffered his lone defeat to Pacquiao, he made it a close one and lost by split decision. At one time, Thurman was an elite welterweight. Right now, we don’t know for sure whether that’s still true.

Davis was Barrios’ biggest test, and though he ultimately succumbed to his opponent, Barrios (26-1, 17 KOs) still has plenty of potential. The best victory on Barrios’ record is probably Juan Jose Velesco. But clearly, a win vs. Thurman would be huge for him. As Barrios said, “Thurman was the toughest fight presented to me and that’s why I took it.”

Keith Thurman vs. Mario Barrios prediction

I’ve always enjoyed watching Thurman. But he’s 33, he’s had brittle hands, and he’s struggled in his last few fights. His inactivity is going to be a problem, and Barrios is going to build an early lead on the scorecards. Thurman will recover in the second half of the fight, but by then, it’ll be too late. I’ll take Barrios in the upset by majority decision.

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