Joel Embiid Is Now The NBA’s MVP Favorite, But Nikola Jokic Looms

Over the past two months, Philadelphia 76ers star center Joel Embiid has surged into the NBA’s MVP race.

Since returning from a stint in the league’s health and safety protocols in November, Embiid is averaging 31.5 points on 51.4 percent shooting, 11.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.2 three-pointers and 1.0 steals in only 33.6 minutes per game. He leads the league in scoring over that two-month window, just ahead of LeBron James (30.6), Kevin Durant (30.4) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.3).

Embiid is now the favorite to win MVP this year at +220, per FanDuel Sportsbook, just ahead of Nikola Jokic (+330), Antetokounmpo (+410) and Stephen Curry (+410). Memphis Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant is the next-closest player to that quartet at +1000, which suggests it’s a four-man MVP race at the midway point of the season.

After finishing as the MVP runner-up to Jokic last year, Embiid somehow came back even better this season. He’s averaging a career-high 4.4 assists per game in the ongoing absence of Ben Simmons, and he’s turning the ball over a career-low 3.0 times per game.

Passing and floor vision have long been the area where Jokic held the biggest advantage over Embiid, but Embiid has narrowed that gap this season. With Simmons no longer around to orchestrate the half-court offense, Embiid has taken more ownership of directing teammates where to go.

After the Sixers’ 105-87 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers last Thursday, Sixers forward Georges Niang praised Embiid for his ability to manipulate defenses by using the threat of his scoring to open looks for teammates.

“Joel knows he can score whenever he wants. And he can fight through double-teams and take tough shots,” Niang said. “But I think as an All-Star, as a superstar in this league, you kind of have to be able to leverage your teammates off and be able to make plays for them. And that’s what a true superstar and a true leader does.”

Embiid had a rough night as a scorer against Anthony Davis and the Lakers, finishing with only 26 points on 9-of-20 shooting (including an 8-of-13 mark from the charity stripe). But with the Lakers swarming him with double-teams all night, Embiid repeatedly created easy looks by passing to his open teammates.

“He decided, ‘OK, you guys are going to trap me all game? Fine, I’m just going to make everybody better,'” Sixers head coach Doc Rivers said afterward. “The great, great, great players are the only ones that can really do that, where they have the ability to either hurt you with scoring or hurt you with the pass because you’re trying to take him out.”

Opponents have little choice but to double-team Embiid and dare the other Sixers to beat them, though. Few (if any) players can successfully guard him one-on-one, particularly when he uses his 7’0″, 280-pound frame to establish deep post position.

It’s no secret that the Sixers offense revolves around Embiid, but opponents have still been largely powerless to stop him. He currently leads the league with 112 points in clutch situations—when the score is within five and there are no more than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter—which is a full 25 points ahead of the next-closest player, Morant.

Embiid has a convincing MVP case roughly 50 games into the season, but he isn’t the only one who does. Health, team record and individual greatness will all wind up deciding this award.

After Monday’s win against the Morant’s Grizzlies, the Sixers are 31-19, which has them tied with the Miami Heat for second in the Eastern Conference. They’re only one game behind the conference-leading Chicago Bulls, but they’re also only 3.5 games ahead of the seventh-seeded Charlotte Hornets.

The Sixers could add some reinforcements ahead of the trade deadline by finding a new home for Simmons, who still has yet to suit up this season following an offseason trade request. However, team president Daryl Morey recently said that a Simmons deal by the deadline was “less likely than likely.”

Last Monday, Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic reported the Sixers are eyeing a potential sign-and-trade for James Harden this offseason and want to save Simmons for that “rather than take what’s available on the current market.” Not trading Simmons before the deadline will likely decrease their odds of finishing as one of the top few teams in the East, which won’t help Embiid’s MVP case.

The Sixers have the sixth-toughest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon. The Milwaukee Bucks (first) and Bulls (fifth) have have even harder slates to overcome, but the eventual returns of Brook Lopez, Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso will bolster them at some point. Barring a Simmons trade, the Sixers can’t rely on similar help to steady them.

Jokic, who is currently second in FanDuel’s MVP odds, looks like Embiid’s biggest threat in the race. Pick an advanced metric, any advanced metric, and the reigning MVP is likely atop the leaderboard.

Jokic currently boasts the best player efficiency rating and box plus/minus of all time, and he leads the league in win shares, win shares per 48 minutes, value over replacement player, Dunks and Threes’ EPM, FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR. Even if you can nitpick flaws with any one of those individual metrics, him leading all of them speaks volumes. Jokic is also currently averaging 25.9 points, 13.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game, which no player in NBA history has ever accomplished over the course of a full season.

With Jamal Murray still recovering from a torn ACL and Michael Porter Jr. having played only nine games before undergoing back surgery, Jokic is the main reason why the Nuggets are still in playoff contention rather than jostling for draft position. His on/off differential of plus-27.4 is miles ahead of the next-closest player (New York Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley at plus-18.2).

The Nuggets have the 11th-easiest schedule moving forward, according to Tankathon, and there’s hope that both Murray and Porter could return before the playoffs, per Mark Kizla of the Denver Post. Denver is sixth in the West at 28-22, but it sits only 1.5 games behind the fourth-seeded Utah Jazz, who have been in free fall as of late.

Antetokounmpo also can’t be counted out as a legitimate challenger to Embiid and Jokic. The two-time MVP and reigning NBA champion is averaging 28.9 points on 53.6 percent shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.4 blocks per game while playing more center than ever to fill in for the injured Lopez.

Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have all missed at least 10 games for the 32-21 Bucks, who are only 1.5 games behind the Bulls for the best record in the East. If the defending champions finish with one of the three best records in the East while the Sixers and Nuggets are outside the top four of their respective conferences, the team-success narrative could favor Giannis over Embiid or Jokic.

The Sixers, Nuggets and Bucks all have roughly 30 games remaining, so there’s still plenty of time for Embiid, Jokic or Antetokounmpo to assert themselves as the runaway MVP favorite.  But if Embiid stays healthy and continues playing as well as he has over the past two months, it’ll be tough for anyone to dethrone him as the front-runner for the award.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.