The Road For The Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards To Win MVP

After dropping 40 points on the Portland Trail Blazers Tuesday night, Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards was asked about his next goal.

His reply was simple, and to the point.

“I’m going for MVP next year,” he told reporters.

The 20-year-old is oozing confidence, and displays a swagger not seen in Minnesota since a certain number 21 suited up for the franchise. Coincidentally, that number’s owner, the ever energetic Kevin Garnett, won the award in 2004.

For Edwards to reach his lofty goal, he will of course need to get better. Next season will be his third in the league, and players have been known to make major leaps after getting acclimated to the NBA during their first two. Look no further than Ja Morant in Memphis, who could be argued as to playing MVP caliber basketball himself this season.

Efficiency and shot-selection

Edwards isn’t inefficient this year, as his TS of 56.5% is roughly a percentage point higher than league average. But he’s also not super efficient. For a player who’s primary skill is putting the ball in the basket, he will need to take a Zach LaVine-esque jump in efficiency, and get into the 60’s, unless he dramatically adds a whole new playmaking dimension to his game.

One area of improvement could be the free throw line, where Edwards is attempting just 3.7 shots per game. Now, in fairness, that’s not entirely on him. While there aren’t stats that directly pinpoint this, Edwards does have a tendency to get a rough whistle.

Using LaVine as an example once again, being overly athletic can at times make Point A to Point B drives look too easy, and the sheer force of their vertical jumps can throw referees off, and make them miss a hit on the arm or head.

LaVine has spent a not insignificant portion of his time this year barking at referees after years of taking blows to his head, torso and arms, without getting calls. 

Edwards too is in a similar boat, although he has an additional component working against him. At 6’4 and 225 pounds, Edwards is tremendously muscular, which makes defenders bounce off of him, instead of vice versa. This makes it even more difficult for referees to observe fouls, as the combination of size, speed and raw athleticism presents a challenge for them to fully gauge.

As such, Edwards could stand to benefit from improved speed control, by slowing down significantly when he gets within 5-7 feet of the basket. This method has proven extremely effective when used hy Luka Doncic. While the two differ greatly in style and overall athletic prowess, slowing down is a sure-fire way to give game officials a chance to observe the play at a more regular speed.

This is where some might note that players shouldn’t have to go to such lengths to get calls they deserve anyway, and that’s of course a fair point. However, after years with the same pattern, taking a principal stand is simply less recommended than adapting to the realities of how the game is being called.

It should be noted that Edwards does on occasion slow down to throw off defenses. He’s laid out a path of breadcrumbs to follow for later, but nevertheless the results haven’t exactly shown themselves yet.

This too can be said of his conversion rate at the rim, which is likely to improve quite drastically as he ages and gains more experience. 

His 66% shooting efficiency from within three feet is by no means poor – it’s actually a fairly strong number for a guard – but when taking into account just how otherworldly he is physically, there’s a sense that he can grow in this area. This isn’t to suggest he’ll become the new Zion Williamson, but by being more selective and working on how he approaches every shot near the basket, it’s fair to note that this is an area he could become utterly dominant in.

Finally, there’s shooting, and there isn’t much to say about it. Edwards is attempting 8.8 nightly triples, hitting a healthy 37.6% of them. This is about as good a foundation as the Wolves could ask for. Moving forward, it’s all about fine-tuning, identifying the right shots, and feeling the moment. 

Will Edwards ever become a 40% from range on high volume? It’s not impossible, but it shouldn’t be an outright requirement, as long as his shots are taken at the appropriate time and within the confines of the offense.

Defense and all-around game

As with the vast majority of MVPs winners in the past, being able to flick a switch and become a lock-down defender is usually a skill most of them have.

Edwards runs hot and cold defensively. Some of it is fatigue for handling too much of the offensive load, and sometimes it’s just inexperience, which is of course perfectly normal. There aren’t a lot of 20-year-old polished players who become major defensive contributors in their first few seasons, so expecting this of Edwards is a bit optimistic.

However, it does appear the acquisition of Patrick Beverley has injected a bit more fight in the second-year player, when he tries to maneuver screens and close-outs. While he’s not consistent in those areas yet, additional motivation on that end of the floor could see him make substantial year-to-year improvements as a defender. 

He’ll also have moments defensively where he uses his overwhelming athletic presence to hound offensive players, even appearing to take great joy and pride in his performance on that end of the floor. This is a big key to defensive success. Being able to use stops and effort as a motivational factor to take pride in. That’s how players buy in on defense and begin to understand the bigger picture.

Of course, he’s still got some ways to go in this area, as the effort isn’t always there, and he will lose track of plays, or simply misread what’s going on. Remember, no player reaches their ceiling at the age of 20. As long as Edwards takes steps, and the organization sees those improvements, he should be on the right track.

As for his all-around game, Edwards doesn’t project to be a nightly triple-double threat, and that might even work in his favor. The stat has become a bit of a gimmick, with a lot of focus pointed directly at guys who achieve big arbitrary round numbers in multiple categories.

For Edwards, being reliable and ironing out mistakes, especially as a passer, should be fine. He never had the court vision of elite playmakers, so trying to lean into an area where he’s less effective could be a waste of time for both him and the Wolves.

Edwards, if it wasn’t clear, is best suited as a scorer. He’s averaging 20.5 points 113 games into his career, and doesn’t turn 21 until August. It would make no sense for the Wolves to ask him to become something else than who he is, especially as his ceiling as a scorer is virtually limitless.

The playmaking will need to be incorporated as a response, and as a secondary option to his scoring. It shouldn’t become one of his primary areas of responsibility. Passing out of double-teams, identifying defensive schemes and understanding the fine balance between moving the ball and shooting is a suitable evolutionary step for Edwards without having to reinvent the wheel.

The shot at the MVP 

Obviously, winning the MVP is a tall task. Not only will the Wolves have to be one of the best teams in the league, but Edwards will have to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and a plethora of players who find themselves on those lists any given year.

Edwards isn’t even on the list of MVP candidates over at FanDuel Sportsbook this season, meaning he will have to leapfrog an army of All-Stars and All-NBA players just to get into the conversation, let alone lead the pack.

Is it possible? While improbable, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. It simply depends on situation, statistical production, advanced metrics, and of course team success.

If Edwards is playing at a level or two above everyone else on a contending Timberwolves squad, he should almost automatically be in the conversation. But to win, he’ll need to do something big. 

This could be breaking the 30 points per game barrier, while sporting elite efficiency. It could expanding his game into becoming one of the most dominant two-way forces at the guard spot. It could a combination of the above. Either way, he will have to do something major. Modest improvement across the board won’t cut it for MVP. It’ll be a perfectly acceptable result when looking through the perspective of player development, but the MVP doesn’t do “acceptable”. It only does “exceptional”.

So if Edwards is ready for that challenge, expect him to come out the gates strong next season and on a mission. Because that’s the only way he’ll bring home the hardware.