Apple Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s Why at Least One Analyst Is Cautious.

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Apple

stock has stalled out, dragged down by the broader slide in stock valuations. The company reports December quarter results Thursday afternoon, and bulls think strong iPhone sales could power a better-than-expected top line, and profits. But not everyone is so sure.

Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall, who carries a Neutral rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock, has long been one of the Street’s more-cautious analysts on the shares, and this quarter is no exception. He sees risk the quarter will disappoint.

Hall says that both retail sales data and Chinese data on handset sales suggest “slower momentum in December” than in recent months. He thinks the trend could trigger cautious commentary from Apple on the outlook for March-quarter iPhone demand. He’s also cautious on Apple’s Services business, based on moderating growth from both the App Store and search revenue. He says that Apple may have executed better-than-plan against supply constraints, but adds that both services and fading iPhone demand late in the quarter “add risk to both the quarter and outlook commentary.”

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For the Services segment, he notes that growth in the September 2021 fiscal year was 27%, accelerating from about 16% in each or the two prior years. Hall points out that data from the app tracking firm Sensor Tower suggest that revenue growth from the App Store decelerated throughout calendar 2021. 

The Goldman analyst also notes that Apple’s fiscal first quarter this time actually ended Dec. 25, rather than Dec. 31, pushing sales from the typically strong post-Christmas week into the fiscal second quarter.

He adds that “widely publicized supply shortages may have driven consumers to pull forward holiday shopping making December data harder to interpret than in a more normal year.” He points out that December U.S. retail sales were down 3.1%, “much weaker than expected.” Not least, he contends that recent subscriber growth weakness at

Netflix

and moderating demand for Peloton hardware suggest an ebbing of pandemic-era demand spikes that have been a boon to Apple over the past two years.

Apple stock is down a fraction in Tuesday trading to $161.31.

Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]