Dalio Says U.S. in Decline as China Rises, Warns of Election Risk

(Bloomberg) — Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said there’s a “reasonable chance” neither major U.S. political party will accept the results of the 2024 election.

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“There is a worry that one should have about the divisiveness and what it means for each other,” Dalio said Monday during a wide-ranging interview for “The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations,” scheduled for broadcast Feb. 2 on Bloomberg Television.

Dalio, 72, has contrasted political risks in the U.S. with recent economic growth in China. He praised the Asian country’s drive for common prosperity earlier this month while urging nations including the U.S. to narrow wealth gaps. Dalio has a net worth of $15.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Read more: Dalio Says U.S. Needs a Dose of China’s Common Prosperity

The U.S. is in “relative decline,” while “China has been rising,” he said in the interview.

Dalio founded Bridgewater almost four decades ago and built it into the world’s largest hedge fund. Like many of its peers, the firm’s Pure Alpha II flagship fund has struggled over the past decade, although a strong performance in December helped the fund post its best annual return since 2018.

Other highlights from the interview:

Dalio has a “tiny percentage” of his portfolio in cryptocurrencies but said too much attention is spent on them.
The Federal Reserve has been “behind the curve” on monetary policy, he said. “Rising interest rates means all other assets have to adjust.”
With negative real interest rates, it doesn’t pay to hold cash, Dalio said, noting that the average investor should expect annual returns of about 4%.

(Updates with comment on China in the fourth paragraph)