Tesla gives a promising preview of its fiscal fourth quarter

Shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) jumped nearly 10% this morning after the leading U.S. electric car manufacturer reported record deliveries for 2021.

Tesla topped FactSet consensus

On Monday, Tesla said it delivered 308,600 vehicles in Q4 for a total of 936,172 deliveries in 2021. On a year-over-year basis, this represented an 87% increase in annual deliveries.

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According to FactSet, experts had forecast 267,000 deliveries in the fourth quarter and 897,000 for the full year. The Texas-headquartered company will report its quarterly earnings later this month.

CEO Elon Musk is targeting 20 million in annual sales volume by the end of the decade. To that end, Tesla recently built a new factory in Austin, Texas, that will start producing the Model Y crossover in 2022. The EV maker is also setting up another factory in Germany.

Analysts are raising expectations

Also on Monday, RBC Capital Markets’ Joseph Spak bumped up his quarterly revenue estimate for Tesla by $2.3 billion. The analyst said:

Q4 2021 production results should bolster 2022 expectations, but we believe ultimately the pace of capacity expansion (Germany, Texas) will be the larger determinants.

JPMorgan also raised its profit estimates for Tesla after a better-than-expected report this morning. Production numbers were down 19% for the flagship Model S and X in the recent quarter, offset largely by a massive 79% increase in Model 3 and Y.

The delivery numbers were particularly impressive considering the ongoing global chip shortage that continues to be a challenge for automakers. The news comes weeks after Guggenheim said Tesla could tank to $924 a share that represents an about 20% downside from here.