Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz to US, excludes nuclear terms

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. while omitting nuclear discussions from the offer. The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 1.0% YES, down from 3% a day ago, as traders price in skepticism that the proposal leads to any near-term resolution.

Market reaction

The ceasefire market dropped from 3% to 1% YES over 24 hours. Total USDC traded is $21,291, with $2,234 needed to move the price 5 points, which points to moderate liquidity. The US invasion of Iran market should see lower probabilities if the proposal is read as a diplomatic opening.

Why it matters

Iran’s offer excludes nuclear terms, which makes it easier to accept but harder to treat as a comprehensive deal. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil transit, so any change in its status directly affects supply disruption pricing. Traders appear to be waiting for a concrete U.S. response before adjusting positions. The gap between Iran floating a proposal and any actual agreement remains wide, and the 1% YES price reflects that gap.

What to watch

At 1% YES, a ceasefire share pays $1 if Trump announces an end to military operations by April 30. Betting YES here requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough happens within a day. The key signals: any official U.S. response to the proposal, or intermediary moves from Oman or Qatar. Either could move this market quickly given the thin liquidity.

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