There is a trendline on the TMO chart that has been climbing quietly since the 2020 lows, and right now that trendline is the most important thing on this chart. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is a global leader in scientific instruments, reagents, and laboratory services. The stock has been selling off hard from highs above $640, and as I look at this daily chart today, the destination on this move is becoming clearer.
Price closed yesterday at $466.70, and the setup I am watching unfold is a continued decline toward that ascending trendline near $420.
That trendline has been rising for years. It is not a short-term line drawn through two recent lows: it is a structural floor built from the foundation of this stock’s entire post-2020 run. When price finally tags it, that is the swing trade entry. Not here at $466.70. Down there, at the trendline.
What I keep coming back to is the distance still remaining between where TMO trades today and where that trendline actually lives. We are talking roughly 45 to 50 points of additional downside before price arrives at that entry zone.
The current level around $466 is not support I have confidence in. There is no technical structure visible that would stop this decline meaningfully before the trendline. Price is still falling through open air.
The trendline near $420 earns respect because of its history. Trendlines that originate from major market lows and survive multiple years of price action carry real weight. The buyers who have respected this line over the years built positions around it. When price returns, that memory matters. That is where I expect demand to show up and where the case for a swing trade long becomes technically grounded.
For those of you who are a bit more aggressive, you can start positioning as price approaches that trendline zone, keeping in mind that an intraday touch is not the signal. A confirmed daily close at or near that level with stabilization is what validates the entry.
Conservative traders may want to see price reach the trendline and then close with clear evidence of buyers stepping in before committing. Either way, the current price is not the entry. The trendline is.
A confirmed daily close back above $500 would push me to reassess the timeline on this move, but it would not eliminate the thesis — the trendline setup remains intact above that level as well, just with less urgency. The structure here is lower, and nothing in the current price action is suggesting that changes before the trendline gets tagged.
TMO is heading toward $420. That is the trade worth waiting for.