Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, oil prices drop to $80 per barrel

Iran’s Foreign Minister announced yesterday that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, causing oil prices to fall to $80 per barrel. The probability of WTI crude hitting $160 in April is now 1.4% YES on Polymarket.

Market reaction

The WTI Crude Oil April market holds at 1.4% YES, with volume at $72,164/day face value but only $704 in actual USDC traded. Traders are not pricing in any near-term oil surge. The market for crude hitting $90 by June has seen zero activity, pointing to a bearish consensus on price hikes.

The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 25-point spike at 8:02 PM, which reversed quickly rather than holding. The order book shows $1,655 is enough to move the market by 5 points, a thin book where single trades can shift the price meaningfully.

Why it matters

The reopening signals a de-escalation in Middle Eastern tensions that had been keeping oil prices higher. At 22¢, a YES share for WTI crude hitting $160 in April pays $1, a 4.5x return. But the odds reflect near-zero confidence in that outcome. Traders would need to expect a sharp reversal in geopolitical conditions for the bet to make sense.

What to watch

Any further statements from Iranian or U.S. officials on the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz or new military actions could move this market quickly.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.