Iraq resumes southern oil exports after month-long Strait of Hormuz halt

Iraq’s southern oil exports have resumed after a month-long halt caused by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 is at 69.5% YES, down from 60% twenty-four hours ago.

The April 30 market here has dropped roughly 10 points in a day, even as Iraq’s resumed exports suggest Iran is allowing some transit through the Strait. The May 31 market sits at 90% YES, a wide gap that shows traders expect resolution but doubt the April timeline. Iraq’s willingness to ship again implies at least partial Iranian cooperation, which lowers short-term escalation risk.

The market for UK warship transit through the Strait by April 30 is at 9.5% YES. Even with Iraq moving oil again, traders see almost no chance of UK naval activity in the near term. That market trades $24,906 in daily face value but only $2,086 in actual USDC, a ratio that points to thin real liquidity.

This matters because Iraq resuming exports is a concrete signal of de-escalation in the Iran-US-Israel conflict. At 50.5¢, a YES share on April 30 pays $1 if resolved. But the order book depth is only $354 to move the price 5 points, so even small trades can cause large swings. The core question for traders: is Iran committed to keeping the Strait open, or could a new provocation reverse the progress Iraq’s exports imply?

Watch for US 5th Fleet or IRGC Navy statements, which could move this market quickly. Any confirmation of increased commercial shipping volume or allied naval activity through the Strait would be the clearest signals.

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