Trump ceasefire bars Israeli offensive in Lebanon, allows self-defense: US official

A senior US official announced that President Trump’s ceasefire agreement includes a ban on Israeli offensive actions in Lebanon, while allowing self-defense against Hezbollah. Odds for Israel suspending its Lebanon offensive by April 30 sit at 96% YES, up from 87% just 24 hours ago.

The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7% YES, up from 45% seven days ago. Traders are pricing in a high probability that this ceasefire holds through at least the end of April.

The term structure suggests traders expect a catalyst in the next two weeks. Odds for the April 30 suspension market jumped 13 points in a single day. The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026 market saw a 28-point spike at 1:15 PM, moving from 28% to 56%.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets reached $1,205,891. The order book shows it takes $50,093 to move the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market 5 percentage points, indicating solid liquidity.

The ceasefire is a concrete step toward de-escalation, at least temporarily. Buying YES at 96¢ offers a near-certain return given current conditions, but the situation could shift if Hezbollah resumes attacks or Israel launches new operations. Watch for Netanyahu’s statements and IDF communications, which could move odds. Any developments from the upcoming White House talks between Netanyahu and Aoun will also matter.

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