Three Strikes? Bitcoin Retests the SMA That Triggered Two Crashes

 Bitcoin tests the 100-day SMA resistance for a third time. A rejection risks a triple top and a drop back to $59,800, while a breakout opens the path to $84K.

Bitcoin is sitting at one of the most critical technical levels it has faced all year. The 100-day simple moving average is back in focus  and this is not the first time it has mattered.

According to Ali Charts on X, BTC is testing the 100-day SMA as resistance for the third time in just six months. Each previous encounter ended badly for buyers.

Two Rejections, One Pattern Nobody Can Ignore

In October, Bitcoin hit the 100-day SMA near $116,000 and got turned away hard. The resulting drop was 30%, bottoming out around $80,000. Then in January, the same level rejected price from around $97,000. That one was worse, a 39% collapse that sent BTC all the way down to $59,800.

Now the market is back. Same level. Different numbers. Same risk.

Ali Charts noted the pattern directly, warning that a third rejection here would not just be a pullback. It would signal structural failure of what the analyst describes as a “triple top effect,” which could send Bitcoin all the way back to its yearly low at 59,800 dollars.

That kind of move would be a second test of a level that already caused serious damage. Bitcoin’s recovery timeline has been stretching with each deeper drawdown, with estimates pointing to nearly 300 days before the market stabilizes at current correction depth.

What a Breakout Actually Changes

The flip side of the thesis is just as clear. A confirmed close above the 100-day SMA would change the picture fast. Ali Charts puts the initial target zone between $80,000 and $84,000.

More than just a price level. A breakout there would be confirmation that the macro correction is over — at least structurally. The ceiling comes off, and bulls would have their first real technical reason to push for higher ground.

Bitcoin’s relationship with broader equities has tightened considerably, and that macro connection means any clean SMA break needs more than just crypto momentum behind it. Stocks, flows, and sentiment all matter now in ways they did not two years ago.

The Setup Right Now

Three tests of the same resistance level in six months. Two failures. A clean pattern building toward a definitive moment.

Traders are watching whether BTC closes a daily candle above the SMA, not just taps it. The distinction matters. Wicks do not count. Closes do.

The $59,800 level below is not just a support number. It is the yearly low, a structural floor that already proved itself once. A third rejection from the 100-day SMA would put that floor right back in play.

Bulls need a close. Bears just need another rejection.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis and sourced market commentary. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.