Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO, contends the crypto market remains in a “no-trade zone” due to two developments. Hayes also shares scenarios for Bitcoin hitting $80,000-$90,000, gold prices, and investing in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.
Arthur Hayes Says Two Factors Impacting the Crypto Market Heavily
In a new article on April 16, Arthur Hayes said Maelstrom’s trading went quiet in the first quarter and only increased its long position in Hyperliquid. He claims two developments combined to produce a trading dead zone, building pressure on Bitcoin.
He warns that agentic AI or claws will destroy careers in “flexible-labor advanced Western economies” and will cause a deflationary financial collapse. Another factor keeping the crypto market in a “no-trade zone” is Trump taking the US and Israel into war against Iran and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“I don’t know shit about war fighting or have any insider knowledge about what global leaders will or won’t do. But I can read the dominant propaganda narratives and employ my AI agents to conduct simple maths using publicly available information.”
Meanwhile, ceasefire talks continue, with the US and Iran weighing a truce. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed as Trump offered mixed signals on extending the ceasefire and a potential peace deal.
Arthur Hayes Cautious Outlook on Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes said he remains bullish on Bitcoin overall, but is not rushing to add more at current levels amid AI and US-Iran war jitters. AI agentic deflationary pressure is in severity with the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis.
He presents three scenarios that could affect BTC price. First, the US-Iran war ends, restoring the pre-war status quo. However, AI agents will continue to impact the labor market, creating a consumer spending crisis. The Fed needs to print money to prevent banks from becoming insolvent and the crypto market from crashing.
In the second scenario, the US military fails to stop Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would allow friendly ships to transit with fees in Chinese yuan, crypto, sanctioned dollars, or other diplomatic arrangements. This would trigger US dollar selloffs by central banks again to meet oil demand, creating pressure on Bitcoin, bonds, and stock prices.
Third, Trump extends Hormuz’s blockade and destroys Iran with its military power. However, Iran will target the Gulf region’s commodity and energy production. The US Federal Reserve and global central banks have no choice but to print money to save the global financial system.
Arthur Hayes claims BTC price could spike to $80,000 to $90,000. However, he will not buy Bitcoin until the Fed provides liquidity as banks’ balance sheets are facing severe consumer credit defaults.
Suggests Buying Gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token
Bitcoin recorded slight outperformance over IGV US over the past few days. Arthur Hayes claims it will prompt him to reevaluate his bearish stance on Bitcoin price and current crypto market dynamics.
As CoinGape predicted earlier, BTC price jumped more than 7% in a week to trade above $75,000. The 24-hour low and high are $73,549 and $75,409, respectively. However, trading volume has tumbled by 25% over the last 24 hours.
Arthur Hayes is only comfortable investing in gold and HYPE token at the moment. He added that Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 launch in a few weeks will trigger a massive rally in HYPE price. He predicts Hyperliquid will take significant market share from Polymarket and Kalshi in the prediction markets industry.
HYPE price is 18% up in a week, currently trading at $45.31. Whereas gold price is trading almost 1% higher at around $4,830 today.
Also Read: New Cryptocurrencies To Invest In April 2026