Fed: On hold as energy shock lifts inflation – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists report the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates at 3.50%-3.75% in March and still expects a 25 bp cut in September. Markets price only modest easing. They warn a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade could push Brent toward USD 120. US inflation has risen to 3.3%, with 2026 growth forecast at 2.5% and inflation at 3.4%.

Energy risks complicate Fed policy path

“A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could well drive the price of Brent crude oil toward USD 120 per barrel.”

“As expected, the Fed left its target range for interest rates unchanged in March at 3.50%-3.75% .”

“While a weakening labor market would justify another rate cut, an inflation surge stemming from the energy price shock might necessitate a rate hike.”

“Financial markets are pricing in around 6 basis points of easing by the end of the year, which translates to an implied probability of a rate cut at 24%.”

“We are maintaining our forecast of a 25 basis point rate cut in September for now .”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)