Israel backs US-Iran ceasefire, excludes Hezbollah operations

Israel has backed a US-Iran ceasefire, but with a caveat: Netanyahu maintains that Israel’s operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon will continue. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 99.6% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The April 15 ceasefire odds jumped on Israel’s endorsement of the US-Iran truce. Netanyahu’s exclusion of the Hezbollah front from this ceasefire, though, complicates the picture. The April 30 market also prices a near-certainty of a ceasefire at 99.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. The term structure from May to December shows consistent confidence in the ceasefire holding, with all dates priced at nearly 100% YES.

Why it matters

The market has seen $4,541,408 in USDC traded across all sub-markets in the last 24 hours. Order book depth shows it takes $246,725 to move the April 15 odds by just 5 percentage points, which points to serious institutional positioning.

Israel’s endorsement raises the diplomatic probability of a US-Iran ceasefire, but Netanyahu’s stance on Hezbollah leaves a separate conflict track open. At 99.6¢ for a YES share, the market is pricing near-total certainty of a ceasefire by April 15. Traders betting on a reversal would need unexpected military escalation or a diplomatic breakdown to justify a contrarian position.

What to watch

Any operational updates from CENTCOM or shifts in US diplomatic rhetoric. Netanyahu’s next move against Hezbollah could also affect these markets, particularly if it triggers broader regional conflict.

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