April 6 in Focus as Bitcoin Weakens

President Donald Trump has extended the moratorium on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure from 5 days to 10 days, pushing the next critical deadline to April 6. The reversal comes as Bitcoin weakens to $68,950 amid surging oil prices above $107 per barrel, a dramatic shift in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, and a Wall Street Journal report that the Pentagon is weighing deployment of 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East.

Trump Reverses Again: Iran Strike Moratorium Stretched to 10 Days With April 6 as the New Deadline

Trump originally imposed a 5-day pause on attacks targeting Iran’s energy sector, framing it as a window for diplomacy. On March 27, he extended that pause to a total of 10 days, citing a desire to give Iran “a chance to make a deal,” according to Al Jazeera’s live coverage.

This marks the second time Trump has shifted the timeline on Iran energy strikes in rapid succession. April 6 is now the date markets are watching, as it represents the hard expiry of the extended moratorium and the point at which military escalation could resume.

Diplomacy has not gained traction during the pause. An unnamed senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran received a U.S. peace proposal but characterized it as “one-sided and unfair.” Iranian missiles and drones have continued targeting Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan throughout the moratorium period.

Iran’s Deputy Health Minister confirmed at least 1,937 deaths from U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iranian territory, underscoring the scale of the conflict even as both sides weigh whether to extend or escalate.

Bitcoin Slides to $68,950 as Fed Rate Hike Odds Flip for the First Time

Bitcoin traded at $68,950 on March 27, down 2.75% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.38 trillion and daily trading volume of $52.84 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 13, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory.

The macro backdrop has deteriorated rapidly for risk assets. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March 18 FOMC meeting in an 11-1 vote, with its dot plot still projecting one rate cut in 2026. But by March 19, CME FedWatch data showed something that hadn’t happened before in this cycle: June rate hike odds surpassed cut odds for the first time.

The shift was dramatic. In early February, markets were pricing roughly 60% odds of a June rate cut. By mid-March, hike probability had risen to approximately 15%, with cut odds falling to a similar level and unchanged odds dominating at around 85%. One research firm raised its stagflation probability estimate for 2026 to 35%.

“A month ago, no one would have believed this,” said Ryan Detrick, a market strategist, commenting on the reversal in rate expectations. The speed of the shift reflects how the Iran war’s disruption of global energy markets has rewritten the Fed’s calculus.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell rejected the “stagflation” label at the March 18 press conference but acknowledged that the Fed’s dual-mandate goals of price stability and employment are “in tension.” That tension is exactly what is compressing crypto risk appetite, as Fed officials have warned that sustained price shocks could destabilize inflation expectations.

Not all economists agree a hike is coming. Christopher Hodge, a senior U.S. economist, pushed back on the market pricing: “Historically, the Fed looks through energy shocks. A near-term hike would be nuts.” The debate itself, however, is enough to keep Bitcoin under pressure.

Despite the selloff, JPMorgan analysts have noted that Bitcoin has outperformed gold and silver on a capital flow basis in recent weeks, suggesting institutional conviction has not fully broken even as headline prices weaken.

Oil Surges Past $107 and Geopolitical Risk Deepens With 10,000 Troops Under Consideration

Brent crude surged toward $107 per barrel on March 26 after Iran formally rejected a 15-point U.S. peace framework. Oil had peaked at $126 per barrel earlier in March when the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, was effectively closed during the worst phase of the conflict.

The Wall Street Journal reported on March 26 that the Pentagon is weighing deployment of up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East. The force would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, though the specific deployment location has not been confirmed. The report has been corroborated by U.S. News, the Times of Israel, Al-Monitor, and Reuters.

IEA member states agreed on March 11 to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, the largest coordinated release in history involving all 32 member nations. The release has been insufficient to offset the supply disruption caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The feedback loop for crypto markets is direct: higher oil prices feed inflation expectations, which keep the Fed hawkish, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, large capital movements continue in the crypto space, with a new wallet recently withdrawing 2,000 ETH ($8.77 million) from a centralized exchange in a single transaction, a sign that some players are positioning for what comes next.

Larry Fink, BlackRock’s CEO, framed the stakes plainly in a March 25 interview: “The Iran war ends in one of two extremes: abundance, growth, and oil at $40 a barrel, or a global recession and years of oil at $150.”

What to Watch Before April 6: Dates, Triggers, and Scenarios

April 6 is the single most important near-term date for both energy and crypto markets. On that day, the 10-day moratorium on Iran energy strikes expires. Two scenarios follow.

If Trump extends the moratorium again or a diplomatic breakthrough occurs, oil prices could retreat from $107 and the risk-off pressure on Bitcoin would ease. Markets have already seen this pattern: each pause announcement has produced a brief relief rally in risk assets before uncertainty reasserts itself.

If strikes resume, oil prices could retest the $126 peak or higher, accelerating inflation expectations and further cementing the June rate hike narrative. Under that scenario, Bitcoin’s $68,000 level becomes vulnerable to a breakdown.

Between now and April 6, the Fed calendar matters. No FOMC meeting is scheduled before the moratorium expires, but any hawkish commentary from Fed governors on the inflation outlook could amplify the pressure. Powell’s March 18 admission that the Fed’s goals are “in tension” gives other officials room to signal concern.

Bitcoin’s behavior during previous moratorium cycles offers a rough guide. Each extension has been met with a short-term bounce in crypto prices, followed by a grind lower as the new deadline approaches and uncertainty rebuilds. The pattern rewards patience over conviction in either direction.

The data points to monitor are straightforward: Brent crude’s trajectory as a leading indicator of inflation expectations, CME FedWatch probabilities for the June meeting, and Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $68,000 as the April 6 deadline approaches. If all three deteriorate simultaneously, the current “Extreme Fear” reading of 13 on the Fear & Greed Index could move even lower.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.