Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said today that Circle could reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030. He outlined the estimate using conservative assumptions tied to stablecoin adoption. The projection comes as lawmakers review stablecoin yield concerns in the CLARITY Act.
Circle Outlook Tied to Market Size and Share
According to Matt Hougan, in the weekly memo, Circle’s long-term value depends on three variables, starting with total stablecoin market growth. He cited a widely referenced forecast from Citigroup. That estimate places the market at $1.9 trillion by 2030 under a base scenario.
As reported by Coingape, Tether finally is finally completing its first full audit thus challenging Circle’s regulatory moat in the US.
However, he noted that yield incentives have not driven adoption so far. Instead, users rely on stablecoins for payments, settlement, and global transfers. As a result, he said regulatory limits on yield may not change overall demand trends.
Source: Bitwise
Next, he addressed Circle’s market share through its USDC stablecoin. USDC holds about 25% of the global stablecoin supply. Although large financial firms are entering the sector, Hougan pointed to early movers maintaining leadership in similar markets.
He added that Circle dominates regulated onshore markets, where compliance requirements shape adoption. That share, he estimated, exceeds 80% in those segments. Even so, his model assumes Circle maintains its current 25% share.
Margins Face Pressure
The third variable in Hougan’s framework focuses on profitability. Circle earns revenue from interest on reserves backing USDC, mainly U.S. Treasuries. At current rates, that yield is near 4% on roughly $80 billion in assets.
However, distribution agreements reduce that figure. Circle shares revenue with partners, including Coinbase, which hosts Circle’s USDC across its platform. These arrangements lower Circle’s effective take rate to about 1.6%.
Looking ahead, Hougan expects competitive pressure to reduce margins further. He modeled a long-term take rate of 0.8%. He also noted that regulatory limits on yield payouts could indirectly support margins by restricting user incentives.
Revenue Model Supports $75B Estimate
Using those assumptions, Hougan calculated Circle’s potential revenue at $3.8 billion by 2030. After accounting for operating costs, he projected net income near $2.7 billion. He based this on current expense levels of $144 million in 2025, even with expected increases.
Applying a standard market multiple, he estimated a valuation close to $75 billion. This figure is roughly double current levels.
This estimate follows a 20% drop in Circle’s stock on Tuesday mainly due to the CLARITY Act stablecoin yield standoff. However, today at the time of writing, the crypto stock shares had recovered about 2%, trading near $102.81.
Source: TradingView
Hougan did not focus on the short-term price movement. Instead, he emphasized that adoption trends rely on utility rather than yield. He also noted Circle’s expanding role in regulated financial systems and ongoing efforts to grow non-interest revenue streams.