Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds $68,000 As Markets Brace For Hormuz Decision

• Bitcoin holds firm above $66,000 support despite broad market stress and rising oil prices.
• Spot netflows flip positive to $73M, signaling early signs of accumulation after days of selling pressure.
• Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum threatening to hit Iran’s power plants expires Monday evening, with Iran warning of indefinite Hormuz closure in response.

Bitcoin trades at $68,477, up 1%, and is quietly outperforming almost everything right now. Gold is down nine consecutive days to $4,360. Asian equities are falling for a third session and approaching correction territory. Bond yields are rising. Brent crude is at $113, up more than 70% year to date. In that environment, Bitcoin losing 6% on the week while holding above a key support level is not a bad outcome.

Daily Chart: Symmetrical Triangle Holds As Supertrend Stays Bullish

The daily chart shows BTC still inside the symmetrical triangle from the February lows near $59,674 and the descending resistance from October 2025 highs. Price is sitting on the ascending trendline near $67,000 to $68,000, with the Supertrend bullish at $66,129 just below. The 20-day EMA at $69,978 and 50-day at $72,160 are both above price as resistance.

The triangle is approaching its apex. As long as the ascending trendline and Supertrend hold, the structure stays intact. A daily close below $66,129 changes that picture entirely.

Key levels:

• Supertrend support: $66,129
• Triangle lower boundary: ~$67,000 rising
• 20-day EMA resistance: $69,978
• 50-day EMA resistance: $72,160
• Triangle upper boundary: ~$74,000 to $76,000

Gold Is Crashing And That’s Not Bullish For Anyone

Gold falling nine days straight to $4,360 is not a sign of confidence. The traditional safe-haven narrative has broken down. Alexander Blume of Two Prime pointed out that China and other nations had been systematically buying gold to decouple from Western markets and the dollar. That buying has reversed as the conflict deepened and liquidity became the priority. When gold sells off during a war, it means institutions are raising cash, not rotating into other assets.

Bitcoin is holding better than gold on a relative basis this week, but the macro backdrop is not supportive. Bond yields climbing while equities fall and oil surges points toward stagflation, the worst possible environment for risk assets. Goldman Sachs described the Hormuz disruption as the largest-ever supply shock for global crude markets and raised its Brent forecast to $85 for the year.

The Ultimatum Expires Tonight

Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday threatening to hit and obliterate Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Monday evening. Iran responded that any such attack would trigger an indefinite closure of the waterway and retaliatory strikes on US and Israeli energy infrastructure across the region.

That exchange sets up Monday evening as the most consequential macro event for crypto since the war began. If the ultimatum passes without action, markets will likely read it as a de-escalation signal and risk assets could bounce. If strikes happen, oil spikes further and everything sells. BTC’s $66,000 Supertrend support will be the level to watch in real time.

Derivatives And On-Chain Data: One Positive Signal In A Tough Week

BTC spot netflow turned positive at $73.32M on March 23, the first green bar in several days. More BTC leaving exchanges than arriving typically means holders are moving coins to cold storage rather than positioning to sell. One day is not a trend, but it is the first on-chain signal worth noting since the week began.

On the derivatives side, volume rose 31.73% to $55.35B while open interest was flat at $46.33B. Options volume jumped 59.60% to $2.38B, almost entirely driven by hedging around the Hormuz ultimatum. The Binance long/short ratio sits at 1.79 for accounts with top trader positions at 1.01, essentially neutral. Longs absorbed $98.52M in 24-hour liquidations against $21.89M for shorts. Every volatility spike this week has punished the long side, and that pattern holds today.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

• Bullish case: Hormuz ultimatum passes without escalation, oil pulls back, and BTC holds the Supertrend at $66,129. The positive netflow signal and stable open interest support a bounce toward the 20-day EMA at $69,978. Two Prime’s positioning for higher funding and futures rates suggests the contrarian long trade is being built at current levels.
• Bearish case: US strikes Iran’s power plants tonight, oil surges above $120, and BTC loses the Supertrend at $66,129. The triangle lower boundary breaks and the February lows near $59,674 come back into play.