What Happens to Oil Prices After April 11 Russian Sanctions Window?

The US has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil stranded at sea amid the ongoing US-Iran war. In a move to keep oil prices in check, the US is allowing Russian oil to be sold for 30 days, until April 11, 2026.

Oil Prices Slip Amid US Sanctions Relief

According to the latest reports, the United States has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil that is stuck at sea. This move comes as part of the country’s efforts to ease rising oil prices and global supply worries.

At the time of writing, crude oil is priced at $97, marking a marginal uptick of 1.8%. Despite the current surge, the price has declined after surging above $100 yesterday. This brings a temporary relief.

However, this relief will last only for 30 days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls this a “temporary authorization.” According to him, the measure will allow countries to buy stranded oil. He noted,

“To increase the global reach of existing supply, US Treasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction.”

Following this significant development, the oil price has seen a slight drop. Yesterday, the oil prices spiked as Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei released his first official statement. He asserted that the Strait of Hormuz will continue to remain closed.

It is worth noting that the US’s latest move comes on the heels of the country’s decision to allow Indian refiners to temporarily buy Russian oil for 30 days. The move is aimed at limiting Russia’s income and, according to Trump, helping to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

What Happens to Oil Prices after April 11?

Significantly, the temporary relief on oil prices is likely to fade once the 30-day waiver expires on April 11. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the Middle East tensions continue, supply disruptions could push the crude oil prices higher afterward.

However, experts believe that the oil prices could soar higher if the US-Iran war does not end. At present, there are no hints whether the war will end. Even though Trump declared the US’s victory in the war, he is not willing to withdraw.

Similarly, Iran is also not ready to end the battle. As per Israel’s estimations, Iran has more than 2,500 ballistic missiles. As of now, the country has used about 500-700 missiles. Thus, the country is expected to continue with the war.

“Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing for time,” stated Professor Fawaz Gerges. According to yesterday’s CoinGape report, the odds of the US-Iran war lasting till May have surged to 67%.

Experts believe that the oil prices would hit $150-$200 if the conflicts persist. Thus, the overall outlook remains cautious, with oil prices likely to stay elevated or even rise again after April 11.

On the other hand, if the US-Iran war comes to an end by April 11, the ongoing geopolitical tensions will cease. This will indeed bring the value of oil down, with prices settling back toward more normal pre‑war ranges.