What Happens to XRP Price If US Wins War Against Iran?

XRP Price hovered at $1.37 on Thursday as traders weighed rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. If the U.S. were to lose a war against Iran, the XRP price reaction would likely be driven by global panic, dollar instability, sanctions changes, and crypto market sentiment, not by the war outcome alone.

The effect could go either sharply up or sharply down, depending on how markets interpret the situation. In major geopolitical shocks, Investors often dump risk assets like stocks and crypto. 

Is US Losing Or Winning This War?

Us-Iran tensions are projected to extend beyond May as hostilities intensify across the region. The polymarket cap data reveals that the conflict that has continued until May has risen to 70%.

Analysts attribute the spike to growing geopolitical tension and an ongoing instability in the international oil prices. A prominent expert contends Washington has lost strategic ground and lacks a workable exit strategy.

Iraq halted operations at a key oil terminal after two tankers were attacked in its waters. President Donald Trump seeks an off-ramp but faces resistance as Tehran refuses negotiations. Iran could escalate by targeting Gulf infrastructure and oil flows, threatening the global economy.

How Is XRP Reacting to the War? 

On-chain data shows a sharp rise in XRP withdrawal transactions in recent weeks. The surge is occurring as the spot XRP exchange-traded funds keep drawing in stable inflows of capital. The cumulative investment is about 1.4 billion, indicating a continuous demand.

The profit-to-loss ratio that has been achieved by XRP is approaching the critical level of 1.0, which is observed by traders closely. The measure measures the number of coins sold in profit and loss and indicates the increasing capitulation pressure.  Analysts hold that a sustained shift below the 90-day average may be a precursor to an appreciable price recovery.

Can XRP Price Hold $1.35 Support Level Amid the War

The XRP price is trading around $1.37, reflecting a 1% decrease over the past 24-hours. The Average Directional Index is at almost 28, which means that the trend strength is not diminishing but slowly accumulating.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also under neutral of 50, indicative of a balanced but marginally wary momentum.

In case bulls manage gains a sustained breakout beyond $1.40, the upside targets will be at the major breakouts points of $1.45 and the critical resistance point of $1.50. In a long-term bullish situation, the XRP price may be propelled by a stronger momentum expansion to reach an upward target of $1.55.

Conversely, a breakdown confirmed to be below $1.35 would put the focus to the next support level of $1.32.

XRP Bull Run Next?

XRP adoption is surging with Ripple expanding cross-border payments with banks and financial institutions. XRP Ledger (XRPL) is becoming popular for launching tokenized assets. The conclusion of the war in US favor will put a stop to rising Oil prices. Crypto assets like XRP and Bitcoin will benefit from this and it might initiate the next bull run. ChatGPT predicts XRP in $3-$5 range in a bull case scenario while $8 in an extremely bullish scenario.

XRP price is looking to recover as legislators move towards the intended CLARITY Act in the Senate. The bill is aimed at providing regulatory oversight on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.  There is an effort by officials to settle the differences prior to the April 3 deadline. Market participants assume that approval would open institutional participation on a large scale.

In conclusion, the Amid US-Iran conflict fears, the XRP price is put under pressure, as well as expanded markets. There is the risk of geopolitics that can exacerbate volatility, although regulatory advancement and key levels of support can help define the future direction with possible rebounds.