Key Insights:
- XRP price is showing a bearish 21 EMA crossing below the 50 EMA, a pattern that has appeared before major market bottoms in past cycles.
- Analysts say a final sweep toward the $0.91–$0.85 zone could occur before stronger buying interest returns.
- Despite short-term pressure, the long-term symmetrical triangle structure still points to a possible $8.5 breakout target.
XRP price is showing signs of stress after a bearish moving average cross that has appeared in past market cycles. Market watchers say the signal often comes before a final drop and a market bottom. However, long-term chart structure still points to a much higher price target.
XRP Price and Possible Final Downside Move
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto pointed to the recent cross of the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) below the 50 EMA on the XRP price chart. In crypto market analysis, this type of cross is widely seen as a bearish momentum signal.
According to the analyst, this pattern has appeared before during earlier market cycles for XRP. Each time it happened, the XRP price dropped once more before the market formed its real bottom.
Past chart data shows a clear sequence. First came the bearish EMA cross, followed by a short wave of panic selling. The price then formed its final low soon after. Notably, during the last cycle, the drop that followed the cross was about 17% from the local low point.
That move marked the last stage of selling pressure before the market began to recover. Now, the same signal has appeared again. The current market structure shows the 21 EMA falling below the 50 EMA once more. If the pattern repeats, XRP could still face another downside sweep before the market stabilizes.
This expected move also lines up with a falling wedge pattern that traders are watching closely on the chart. Wedge patterns often act as a final stage before a strong price move begins.
XRP Price Zone Teases Key Support
Chart watchers are now focusing on a narrow support region where the final downside move could stop. The falling wedge structure places this zone between about $0.91 and $0.85.
If the market follows the same pattern seen in past cycles, XRP price could dip into this area before finding strong buying interest. Market watchers describe this move as a liquidity sweep.
In simple terms, it is a moment when the market briefly pushes lower to trigger stop losses and force weaker traders out of positions. Once that process ends, prices often move in the opposite direction.
Another voice in the market, Steph, also pointed to signs of stress in the current price action. Data shared by the analyst shows that more than 50% of the circulating supply of XRP is now underwater.
This means many holders bought the asset at higher prices than where it trades today.
Market history shows that periods when a large share of holders sit at a loss often happen near the end of market corrections. Notably, selling pressure from discouraged investors usually fades after that stage.
Because of this, some traders believe the bottom could be forming even if one more drop still happens. However, analysts are also watching key price levels that could weaken the bearish outlook.
If XRP price closes above $1.80, the case for continued downside becomes weaker. A weekly close above $2.00 would send a stronger message that the bottom may already be in place.
Long-Term Triangle Structure Still Points To $8.5 XRP Target
While short-term volatility remains possible, the long-term chart structure for XRP price has not changed. For several years, the Ripple Labs-linked asset has been forming a large symmetrical triangle pattern on the higher-timeframe chart.
Such patterns usually develop during long periods of consolidation before a breakout. A measured move from this triangle gives a projected price target of about $8.5.
According to analysts, this level comes from calculating the height of the triangle and extending it from the breakout point.
Supporters of the bullish outlook say the market may simply be shaking out weaker hands before the next expansion phase begins. Meanwhile, monthly price performance data also shows mixed results in recent years.
XRP posted gains of 43% in 2023 and 7.11% in 2024, while the returns for 2025 and early 2026 have been negative so far.