BTC Technical Analysis Feb 28

Bitcoin’s RSI is at 37.34, approaching the oversold zone, while MACD signals bullish momentum with a positive histogram; however, the prevailing bearish trend persists below the short-term EMA20.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

Bitcoin is currently trading at 65.698 dollars and recorded a slight 0.34% increase over the last 24 hours, fluctuating in the 63.030-66.025 dollar range. While the overall trend direction is downward, momentum indicators are giving mixed signals. Daily volume is at a relatively healthy level of 23.30 billion dollars, but the price remaining below EMA20 (68.539 dollars) strengthens short-term bearish momentum. The Supertrend indicator also gives a bearish signal and marks 74.247 dollars as resistance. Examining multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment reveals a balanced support/resistance distribution in the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports/3 resistances on daily, 1 support/3 resistances on 3-day, and 3 supports/3 resistances on weekly, totaling 12 strong levels. This confluence increases the trend’s fragility, with volume confirmation awaited for a momentum shift. Although downward pressure dominates, the low RSI level may signal a potential pullback or consolidation.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

The 14-period RSI is currently at 37.34, positioned quite close to the oversold region (below 30). This level indicates that momentum is beginning to exhaust despite recent price declines. No regular bearish divergence is observed on the daily chart; as price makes new lows, RSI tests similar low levels, confirming the trend has not yet weakened. However, a hidden bullish divergence potential is starting to form on the weekly RSI: as price approaches supports around 62.500 dollars, RSI holds a higher base. This type of divergence could serve as an early warning for a trend reversal if supported by volume. In the short term, if RSI breaks above 40, momentum recovery is expected; if it falls below 30, selling pressure may increase.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI’s 37.34 value points to oversold conditions, highlighting short-term buying opportunities. Historically, Bitcoin’s RSI in the 35-40 range has been strong bounce points; for example, during corrections in the last quarter of 2025, 15-20% rallies were observed from similar levels. The current position shows selling momentum slowing, but within the general downtrend, it should be viewed only as temporary relief. If RSI crosses above the 50 midline, bullish momentum strengthens; otherwise, testing toward the 64.283 dollar support may continue.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

The MACD indicator is in bullish status, with the histogram expanding in the positive zone, revealing hidden buying power in momentum. As the distance between the signal line and MACD line widens, histogram bar sizes gained positive momentum over the last two days. This dynamic supports price recovery from the 63.000 dollar base and shows resistance against the short-term bearish trend. However, remaining below the zero line reminds that the overall trend is still bearish-oriented. In the near term, if the MACD line crosses above the signal line (supported by the current positive histogram), a move toward 68.166 dollar resistance may follow. Histogram narrowing signals consolidation; if volume exceeds 25 billion dollars, bullish confirmation strengthens.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

With price trading below EMA20 (68.539 dollars), short-term momentum is evaluated as bearish. Congestion between EMA10 and EMA20 persists, and price continuing below this ribbon confirms the selling trend. Distance to EMA50 (approximately 70.000 dollars) amplifies momentum loss and hinders breaking the 65.872 dollar resistance. The downward slope of short-term EMAs indicates trend strength is not weak.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

Medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 levels form support in the 70.000-72.000 dollar band, while long-term EMA200 (around 75.000 dollars) represents the main trend line. Price distance from these levels confirms overall momentum remains in downtrend. There is no contraction in the EMA ribbon; instead, divergence is increasing, signaling a strong trend. If price approaches EMA50 at the 62.510 dollar support, ribbon recovery becomes key for a momentum shift. EMA alignment should be monitored in Spot BTC and Futures BTC markets.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

In the momentum analysis synthesis, RSI’s oversold condition and MACD’s positive histogram suggest short-term bullish potential, but EMA systems and Supertrend bearish signals take precedence. Lack of volume confirmation limits trend strength; if 64.283 dollar support breaks, targets are 62.510 and 60.000 dollars; upward, 68.166 dollar resistance may be tested. Balanced levels in MTF confluence will gain momentum based on breakout direction. Recent news flows (Mt. Gox closure and UAE bank developments) may impact liquidity, but technical momentum is primary. Overall outlook is cautious; a bounce from oversold RSI is expected while downtrend dominance persists. Targets range from bullish 83.000 to bearish 49.000 dollars, to be clarified by volume and indicators.