UNI Technical Analysis Feb 28

UNI’s dominant downtrend continues with LH/LL structure, but short-term hold above EMA20 and MACD positivity might signal a structural change? Key BOS levels should be monitored.

Market Structure Overview

UNI’s current market structure is characterized by Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) patterns reflecting the overall downtrend. With price trading at $3.73, it has dropped 3.90% in the last 24 hours, squeezing into the $3.67-$3.94 range. This structure confirms bearish momentum by diverging from the higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) bullish trend. However, the short-term hold above EMA20 ($3.67) implies a local Higher Low (HL) formation, raising the question of trend continuation or Change of Character (CHoCH). Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis shows 12 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/1R on 3D, 2S/2R on 1W. Although Supertrend gives a bearish signal, RSI at 49.10 is neutral and MACD histogram is positive – these contradictions increase the potential for structural breakout. The market is positioned according to swing points, and BOS (Break of Structure) levels will play a critical role.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

Bullish signals are limited but promising: Price holding above EMA20 ($3.67) forms a short-term HL structure, which could be the first sign of breakdown in the downtrend. Positive MACD histogram indicates momentum slowly turning upward. The first step for HH/HL would be to hold the last swing low at $3.6776 and break $3.7612 resistance – this BOS could trigger a trend reversal. MTF supports on 1W (around $3.2893) remain solid, opening a $5.2533 target on upside breakout. However, these are speculative; a true bullish structure must be confirmed with consecutive HH/HL.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strong with LH/LL: Last swing high $3.7612 (82/100 score) formed LHs at $3.9450 and $4.1441, while LLs dropped to $3.6776. Supertrend bearish at $4.71 resistance, BTC downtrend pressures altcoins. A break below $3.6776 (strong support with 85/100 score) opens a new LL to $3.2893 (60/100) and ultimately to $1.7850 bearish target. Even with neutral RSI, LL continuation delays CHoCH – stay cautious, LH/LL structure intact.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend changes: For bullish BOS, a close above $3.7612 (last LH, 82/100) is required – this invalidates the LH and initiates HH transformation from HL. Second level $3.9450 (60/100); break opens $4.1441 and $4.71 Supertrend, confirming CHoCH. Bearish BOS is a close below $3.6776 (85/100): This turns the last HL into LL, targeting $3.2893. On MTF, 1D resistances (3R) dominant, 3D supports (2S) fragile. Without BOS, trend continues; e.g., rejection at $3.7612 strengthens LH/LL. These levels are pivots determining market structure – educationally, BOS is the swing point broken on close.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

$3.7612 (82/100): Most critical LH, bullish BOS level – breakout signals HH, rejection bearish continuation. $3.9450 (60/100): Medium resistance, local top. $4.1441 (70/100): Main LH, overall trend resistance. These swing highs define the upper band of the down channel; volume increase on tests gives reversal clues.

Recent Swing Lows

$3.6776 (85/100): Strong HL/support, price approaching – hold preserves HL structure, break triggers LL with bearish BOS. $3.2893 (60/100): Deep support, MTF 1W/3D aligned – hold here forms bottom, break leads to freefall to $1.7850. Swing lows form the structural base; HLs give bullish bias.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $65,824 (-2.08%), Supertrend bearish – altcoins like UNI highly correlated, BTC drop crushes alts. BTC supports at $64,330/$62,506/$60,000; breaks test UNI $3.6776, resistances above $65,907/$68,166 allow UNI recovery. BTC dominance rise creates alt pressure – while monitoring UNI structure, follow UNI Spot Analysis and UNI Futures Analysis. BTC LL continuation reinforces UNI LH/LL.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Currently, LH/LL bearish structure dominates, though short-term EMA/MACD bullish hints; BOS awaited. Bullish scenario: $3.7612 BOS with HL/HH transformation, $5.2533 target. Bearish: $3.6776 break chains LLs to $1.7850. Structure not neutral, bear biased – CHoCH requires consecutive HL + BOS. Market volatile, swing levels provide trade setups. Note: No news, but BTC correlation decisive. Check details for Spot and Futures.