Buyer Activity Hits Record Lows Despite 6% Rates

Mortgage rates just dropped to 6%, their lowest level since 2022. Yet the US housing market shows little sign of renewed momentum. Instead, a striking imbalance has emerged: the country now has 44% more home sellers than buyers.

According to a new report from Redfin, January recorded roughly 600,314 more sellers than buyers nationwide. That marks the second-largest gap since the brokerage began tracking the data in 2013. Only December 2025 showed a wider spread at 45%.

What happens when supply outpaces demand by that margin?

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Buyers Retreat Despite Lower Rates

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6% for the week, down from 6.17% the prior week. That decline marked the second consecutive weekly drop and the lowest reading since early September 2022.

Lower borrowing costs typically encourage buyers to return. This time, they have not.

Redfin estimates that 1.36 million buyers remained active in January. That figure declined 1% from December and 8% from a year earlier, reaching the lowest level on record. High home prices, layoffs, and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household decisions. Severe winter weather across large parts of the country also slowed activity.In January 2026, existing home sales fell to a 3.91 million annualized pace, down 4% year over year and 42% below the pandemic peak. Buyer demand now sits 27% below pre-pandemic norms, with little sign of recovery. 

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At the same time, sellers have not exited the market in equal measure.

Sellers Still Outnumber Buyers

The number of sellers fell 1% month over month to 1.96 million in January, marking the steepest monthly decline since June 2023. Still, seller totals rose 2% compared with last year. That imbalance widened the gap to 44%, far above the 10% threshold Redfin uses to define a buyer’s market.

The US has remained in buyer-friendly territory since May 2024 under that measure.

When listings significantly exceed demand, buyers gain leverage. They can negotiate more aggressively or walk away. However, that advantage only applies to households that can afford current prices and financing costs.

Some homeowners have pulled listings after months without offers. Others have chosen not to list after watching nearby homes sell below asking prices. Sellers who remain active now compete for a smaller pool of qualified buyers. Looking further, recent data show that new single-family homes for sale hit their highest levels in 50 years.

Where The Market Still Favors Sellers

Only five of the 50 largest US metropolitan areas qualified as seller’s markets in January. Newark led the list, with 31% fewer sellers than buyers. Nassau County followed at minus 29%, while Milwaukee and Montgomery County each posted minus 26%. New Brunswick rounded out the group at minus 17%.

Milwaukee recorded an 11% year-over-year increase in median sale price, the largest among the top 50 metros. Across the five seller’s markets, prices rose an average of 5%. Balanced markets saw a 3% increase, while buyer-heavy markets recorded only 1% growth.

The strongest buyer’s market appeared in Miami, where sellers outnumbered buyers by 159%. Fort Lauderdale, Austin, Nashville, and San Antonio followed closely behind.

Many of these Sun Belt markets experienced heavy pandemic migration and aggressive homebuilding. Now, supply exceeds current demand.

So where does the market go from here? Either prices adjust to attract buyers, or transaction volumes remain muted. With mortgage rates easing but buyer confidence fragile, the coming months may reveal whether lower financing costs can restore balance or deepen the divide.