Key Takeaways
- Circle Internet (CRCL) shares touched $90 intraday before stabilizing near $87, extending Wednesday’s ~30% post-earnings rally
- Fourth quarter 2025 earnings per share reached $0.43, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.35; revenue totaled $770 million, reflecting 77% annual growth
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform designation with a $190 price objective, describing the performance as a “clear divergence from crypto”
- Mizuho lifted its price forecast to $90 from $77 while maintaining a Neutral stance, citing interest-rate reductions as a possible challenge
- William Blair and Clear Street both published favorable assessments; Clear Street increased its target to $92 from $85
Circle Internet Group shares momentarily crossed the $90 threshold on Thursday before stabilizing around $87.
Circle Internet Group, CRCL
The move extended momentum from Wednesday’s approximately 30% jump triggered by robust fourth-quarter financial results.
Fourth Quarter Performance
Circle delivered Q4 2025 earnings per share of $0.43, exceeding the Street’s $0.35 estimate by roughly 23%. The company generated $770 million in revenue, marking a 77% increase compared to the same period last year.
The strong quarterly performance prompted responses from multiple Wall Street research teams, each offering distinct perspectives on the stock’s trajectory.
Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform stance while maintaining a $190 price objective. The firm characterized the quarter as representing a “clear divergence from crypto,” highlighting enhanced transaction revenue and expanding blockchain rewards stemming from Circle’s super validator position on the Canton network.
A notable metric highlighted by Bernstein: USDC stored directly on Circle’s platform increased to 17% of total circulation in Q4, climbing from 14% in the previous quarter.
Company guidance indicates expectations for USDC circulation to grow at a 40% compound annual rate, with supplementary revenue streams potentially reaching $170 million in 2026, compared to $110 million in 2025.
Mixed Outlook from Analysts
Mizuho’s Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins increased their price objective to $90 from $77 while retaining a Neutral rating.
They highlighted prediction markets such as Polymarket as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” driving substantial transaction activity that bolsters both revenue streams and reserve holdings. Company management identified Polymarket as a significant factor in recent USDC expansion.
Mizuho also mentioned “agentic AI” — autonomous software systems utilizing internet-native currency — as a potential long-term catalyst for USDC adoption, though present transaction volumes remain minimal.
The firm cautioned, however, that prospective interest-rate decreases pose a risk. Reserve income continues to represent the majority of Circle’s revenue stream, meaning any rate decline would negatively impact that segment.
Additional Wall Street Perspectives
William Blair maintained its Outperform rating and suggested long-term investors should contemplate establishing positions.
The firm views USDC as poised to become the leading commerce-oriented stablecoin, supported by complete fiat backing, regulatory adherence, and network effects. William Blair referenced an approximately $20 trillion cross-border B2B payments market as the long-term addressable opportunity, while acknowledging limited visibility regarding full market penetration.
Street consensus forecasts 62% revenue expansion for Circle in the current fiscal year.
Clear Street elevated its price target to $92 from $85 while retaining a Hold rating, pointing to strengthened fundamentals following the “strong” quarterly report.
Circle presently trades around $81.88 with a market capitalization of $14.45 billion, though shares remain down approximately 51% over the trailing six-month period.
According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Bernstein identified Circle’s Arc product, the Circle Payments Network, and emerging agentic payment capabilities as key areas for product development heading into 2026.
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