Bitcoin is flashing two very different but potentially complementary signals this week – one from U.S. spot flows and another from higher-timeframe positioning.
Key Takeawaysw
- Coinbase Premium flipped positive after six weeks – U.S. spot demand returning.
- Weekly Bitcoin is extremely oversold – positioning stretched.
- If premium strength holds, institutions may be stepping back in.
For the first time in six weeks, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium has flipped back above zero. At the same time, weekly technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is in extreme oversold territory.
Together, that combination is getting traders’ attention.
Coinbase Premium Turns Positive
The Coinbase Premium measures the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase’s USD spot market and offshore exchanges. When it turns positive, it typically reflects stronger U.S. demand.
Historically, sustained positive readings have aligned with ETF inflows, aggressive spot accumulation and momentum continuation. It often signals that real capital – particularly institutional-sized flows – is stepping in rather than short-term derivatives traders pushing price around.
Derivatives can manufacture volatility. Spot demand confirms structure.
A single flip does not guarantee a breakout. But if the premium holds and expands, it suggests that institutions may be re-entering the market rather than traders simply rotating leverage.
Weekly Bitcoin: Extreme Oversold
At the same time, weekly charts show Bitcoin in extreme oversold territory. Analysts caution that this is not automatically a buy signal and not a confirmed bottom.
Instead, it is a positioning warning.
When markets become heavily skewed in one direction, reversals can be violent. Oversold markets do not drift – they snap. Prior major stress events such as the COVID crash, the FTX collapse and other high-volatility drawdowns produced similar conditions before sharp rebounds.
WEEKLY BITCOIN: EXTREME OVERSOLD.
Not a buy signal.
Not a bottom call.A positioning warning.
When everyone leans one way,
the reversal becomes violent.Oversold markets don’t drift.
They snap. pic.twitter.com/ENy7nVJecY— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) February 26, 2026
The key distinction is timing. Oversold does not mean immediate reversal. It means risk is increasingly asymmetric.
Structure Versus Sentiment
The market now sits at an interesting crossroads. On one side, weekly positioning shows stretched downside pressure. On the other, U.S. spot demand appears to be quietly returning.
If the Coinbase Premium continues strengthening while weekly conditions remain compressed, the setup becomes more constructive. If spot demand fades again, derivatives-driven volatility could dominate.
The next move likely depends on whether this renewed U.S. premium is sustained – because that is where structural shifts typically begin.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/coinbase-premium-turns-positive-as-bitcoin-hits-extreme-oversold/