Coinbase Global (COIN) turned heads today with a sharp 13.52% single-session rally, snapping back from multi-month lows to close around $183.94. It’s the kind of move that grabs attention, and rightfully so. But before anyone starts calling a bottom, the daily chart tells a more complicated story, one where the real test hasn’t even started yet.
Let’s break down what we’re actually looking at.
COIN topped out at $444.65 earlier in this cycle — a remarkable run for the crypto exchange operator that processes billions in digital asset trades. What followed was a methodical unwind, a months-long descent that has sliced through level after level. The two that matter most right now sit at $212.62 and $232.20, and both deserve serious attention.
These aren’t arbitrary numbers. Both levels served as meaningful support zones during the stock’s earlier consolidation phases. Price spent considerable time respecting them on the way up, which is exactly why their eventual breakdown carries weight. Once support breaks and price spends time below it, that same level transforms into overhead resistance. That’s precisely the situation COIN finds itself in today.
So what does today’s 13% surge actually mean? Honestly, it’s too early to say. A single powerful candle after an extended decline can reflect genuine accumulation, a short squeeze, or simply an oversold bounce hunting for sellers at higher prices. The volume (nearly 23.8 million share) is worth noting, but conviction won’t be confirmed until price starts interacting with those overhead levels.
The first real test comes at $212.62. If buyers can reclaim that level and, more importantly, hold above it on a closing basis, the case for a legitimate recovery starts to build. Clear that, and $232.20 becomes the next hurdle. Bulls need both to fall before this chart shifts from “bouncing in a downtrend” to something more constructive.
If you’re considering a long position, waiting for a confirmed reclaim of $212.62 rather than chasing today’s momentum is the more disciplined approach. A pullback toward the $175–$180 range with a stop below recent lows offers a defined risk setup for those with higher tolerance. Bearish traders, meanwhile, should watch for a failed rally at either resistance level as a potential re-entry signal, keeping stops just above whichever level price is testing.
The setup is genuinely interesting right now. COIN has shown it can move — today proved that. Whether this bounce has legs or simply delivers sellers a better exit price is the question the next several sessions will answer.