Key Insights:
- Bitcoin (BTC) price profit levels are unusually weak this cycle, with many holders still underwater.
- Profitability estimates vary, but only about 44%–52% of supply is in profit.
- The key trading range is $60K–$69K, with ~$54K as support and ~$79K as a recovery target.
- Weak flows, heavy losses, and miner pressure are slowing rebounds and raising volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) price entered its worst profit cycle on record as roughly 59% of the total supply fell into loss
This cycle has pushed more Bitcoin holders underwater than the market saw when BTC was trading near $3,000.
As Bitcoin trades in the low $60,000 range, on-chain data shows a market under pressure. Nearly half of holders are now sitting on unrealized losses.
Newhedge’s supply-in-profit metric paints that picture clearly. With Bitcoin near $63,275, it shows 51.78% of coins in profit. That works out to about 10.35 million BTC in profit versus roughly 9.64 million BTC still in the red.
Bitcoin Price Worst Profit Cycle Yet Leaves Majority of Supply in the Red
As Bitcoin price trades in the low $60,000s, the on-chain ledger shows a painful reality. Nearly half of holders are sitting on losses.
Newhedge’s percent supply in profit metric shows 51.78% of coins still in profit with BTC price around $63,275. In practical terms, that points to roughly 10.35 million BTC in profit and about 9.64 million BTC in loss.
However, the picture looks even weaker in another model. Over the weekend, analyst DurdenBTC’s supply-in-profit tracker showed just 44.2% of coins in profit while Bitcoin price was still near $68,000.
That reading landed at the 0th percentile, which signals an extreme level of stress for this cycle.
That figure matters because it does more than describe price action. It condenses years of market behavior into one percentage and shows the current downturn as a balance-sheet strain, not just a chart move.
Durden compared the reading with past capitulation points to show how severe it is. He pointed to December 2018, when Bitcoin traded at $3,359 and about 43% of supply was in profit. He also cited the COVID crash at $4,959 with 48% in profit, and the FTX collapse at $15,778 with 49% in profit.
More Holders Are Underwater Compared to When Bitcoin Price Traded at $3000
He then made the point even more stark. With Bitcoin price near $68,000, he said more holders were underwater than when the asset traded near $3,000.
The logic behind that claim is straightforward. A full cycle of buyers entered at higher prices, and the pullback has now turned that into heavy overhead supply.
As a result, every rally runs into the same problem. Many holders are waiting for a chance to sell at break-even, which adds pressure each time price starts to recover.
By this measure, the current downturn stands out as the harshest cycle for Bitcoin investors since before 2016, when this tracker first began recording data.
DurdenBTC uses the same approach as BGeometrics. Notably, the BGeometrics reading has now dropped further to 41.2%, which reinforces how deep the pressure has become.
To understand why the percentages differ, we first need to look at how each metric is defined. The key issue is simple: each model may be measuring a different group of coins.
For example, CryptoQuant’s percent supply in the profit dashboard currently shows 51.6%. That figure reflects its own methodology and the cohort it tracks.
Dormant Vs Active Coins
That big gap points to a clear market split. On one side are dormant coins that have not moved in a long time. On the other side are coins still moving through active trading flows.
CryptoQuant’s own framework helps explain why the numbers can look so different. It uses an active circulating supply cost basis and leaves out long-inactive coins. As a result, the metric focuses more on recent buyers, the group most exposed to current losses.
That is the point where the numbers stop looking contradictory and start telling a clearer story. Older coins can still show large paper profits, while actively circulating coins reflect the pain of recent buyers stuck above the current price.
That is also why DurdenBTC’s reading comes in lower. Like BGeometrics, his method focuses on coins that actually changed hands during this cycle and ties them to the market price at their last on-chain move.
As a result, the metric is heavily shaped by UTXOs created between 2021 and 2024. Many of those coins were last moved at prices now above spot, which pulls the profitability score down.
By contrast, dashboards such as CryptoQuant calculate profitability across the full live UTXO set using a value-weighted method. That approach gives more influence to large, older coins with very low cost bases.
As a result, many long-dormant coins still count as being in profit, which lifts the overall percentage.
In simple terms, Durden’s model leans toward recently traded coins and newer cost bases. Meanwhile, broader UTXO-based trackers still benefit from the cushion created by old coins that have not moved on-chain and therefore have not reset their cost basis.
Why Bitcoin Traders Are Watching the $54K Realized Price?
Another key signal comes from holder cost bases, and the gap is wide.
Short-term holders have a realized Bitcoin price near $91,000. In contrast, long-term holders sit much lower, with a realized price near $38,000.
Taken together, the aggregate realized price is around $54,000. The headline price remains elevated, yet the share of holders in profit is relatively low. That mix creates a clear emotional disconnect across the market.
The Key Price Band the Market Keeps Testing
Glassnode’s latest view shifts the market corridor a bit lower. It places the True Market Mean near $79,000 and the Realized Price near $54,000.
In its Week On-chain report, Glassnode presents these levels as key structural markers. In simple terms, they help track active cost basis and show where buyers have historically started to step back in.
Think of this range as a corridor built from investor cost bases.
At the top of the corridor, active buyers begin to recover and regain some breathing room. In other words, price action near that band can ease pressure on recent entrants.
At the bottom of the corridor, longer-term capital has historically stepped in when the market looks weak. That lower zone often acts as an area where patient buyers start to re-engage.
Within that same corridor, Glassnode had earlier identified a dense URPD cluster between $66,900 and $70,600. That band now stands out as an important zone inside the broader structure.
In practical terms, any recovery needs to push through that overhead shelf before a stronger comeback story can gain momentum.
More broadly, Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain said a dense demand zone between $60,000 and $69,000 has been absorbing sell pressure.
That wider range now matters even more because it is the zone the market is currently leaning on for support.