Can ETH Break Higher as ETF Inflows Hit $125M?

• Ethereum rallies to $2,063 as open interest surges 16.60% to $27.24B and volume jumps 51.49% to $73.62B.
• ETF inflows flip positive at $125.87M on February 25, reversing weeks of institutional outflows as total net assets hit $11.14B.
• Price tests 0.382 Fibonacci resistance at $2,021 with RSI at 69.66, approaching overbought as Keltner Channels signal breakout.

Ethereum price today trades near $2,063, up 0.43% in the past 4 hours as the token extends its recovery from the $1,588 February low. The move comes as Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $125.87 million in net inflows on February 25, reversing weeks of institutional selling pressure.

ETF Inflows Flip Positive At $125.87M After Weeks Of Outflows

According to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $125.87 million in daily net inflow on February 25, marking a significant reversal after weeks of sustained outflows. Cumulative total net inflow stands at $11.61 billion, with total net assets at $11.14 billion, representing 4.72% of Ethereum’s market cap.

Grayscale’s ETHE led inflows with $34.87 million, while Grayscale’s ETH saw $25.55 million. Fidelity’s FETH recorded $61.94 million in inflows, contributing to the positive shift. The daily total value traded reached $1.12 billion, showing renewed institutional participation.

Open Interest Surges 16.60% As Volume Jumps Over 50%

According to Coinglass, Ethereum’s open interest surged 16.60% to $27.24 billion, while volume jumped 51.49% to $73.62 billion. Options volume rose 77.61% to $2.09 billion, with options open interest climbing 6.90% to $7.97 billion.

Long/short ratios show extreme bullish positioning at 1.67 on Binance and 1.51 on OKX. Top trader positioning shows $19.24 million in longs versus $72.10 million in shorts on 12-hour timeframes, indicating large accounts remain cautious despite the rally.

When both open interest and volume surge together by these magnitudes, it typically indicates new capital entering the market with conviction. The combination of rising leverage and surging spot volume confirms the move is attracting fresh buyers rather than just short covering.

Price Tests 0.382 Fibonacci Resistance Near $2,021

The 2-hour chart shows Ethereum testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,021 after rallying from the $1,743 low. All major EMAs have converged: 20-period at $1,992, 50-period at $1,960, 100-period at $1,953, and 200-period at $2,019.

The chart shows:

• Price testing 0.382 Fibonacci resistance at $2,021
• All EMAs converged, signaling potential trend change
• RSI at 69.66, approaching overbought but still with room
• 0.5 Fibonacci at $2,107 as next resistance if breakout occurs

Ethereum dropped from above $4,300 in December to $1,588 in February, marking a 63% correction. The current rally to $2,063 represents a 30% recovery from those lows. The Fibonacci levels provide clear resistance zones: $2,021 (0.382), $2,107 (0.5), $2,193 (0.618), and $2,315 (0.786).

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A 2-hour close above $2,021 would confirm the 0.382 Fibonacci breakout and place $2,107 in range. The EMA convergence suggests price is at an inflection point where a decisive move in either direction is approaching.

Keltner Channels Show Breakout Attempt

The 4-hour chart reveals Ethereum breaking above the Keltner Channel middle line at $2,061. The upper Keltner Channel sits near $2,082, while the lower band is at $1,851. Chaikin Money Flow reads 0.07, showing positive buying pressure.

The structure shows:

• Clean breakout above Keltner middle at $2,061
• CMF positive at 0.07, confirming buying pressure
• Upper Keltner at $2,082 as immediate resistance
• Lower Keltner at $1,851 as strong support

When price breaks above the Keltner middle band with positive CMF, it typically signals the start of a new uptrend. The ETF inflow reversal provides the fundamental catalyst, while the technical breakout confirms momentum is shifting bullish.

A sustained move above $2,082 would break the upper Keltner Channel and likely trigger additional buying as the trend shift becomes clear to more traders.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Go Up?

The next move depends on whether ETH can hold $2,021 and break above $2,082.

• Bullish case: A close above $2,082 with sustained ETF inflows would break the upper Keltner Channel and place $2,107 Fibonacci in range. Reclaiming $2,193 confirms full trend reversal.
• Bearish case: Rejection at $2,082 and a breakdown below $2,021 exposes $1,956, with further downside toward $1,851 if ETF inflows reverse back to outflows. Losing $1,956 invalidates the breakout.