The worst of bitcoin’s 50% drawdown may already be behind us.
The Hash Ribbon indicator is close to signaling the end of a three month miner capitulation. One of the longest capitulations on record, according to Glassnode data.
The metric compares the 30 day and 60 day moving averages of hash rate and is based on the observation that bitcoin often bottoms when miners are under maximum financial stress. Capitulation occurs when mining revenue drops below operating costs, forcing less efficient miners to shut down machines and sell BTC reserves to fund electricity, debt, and overhead. That combination reduces hash rate and adds sustained sell pressure to the market.
A recovery signal is triggered when the 30 day hash rate moving average crosses back above the 60 day, indicating miners are returning online and network stress is easing and that moment is approaching. Historically, when this crossover aligns with improving price momentum, it has marked strong accumulation zones.
Since late November, when the metric first inverted, bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to a low near $60,000 in early February, before rebounding to roughly $65,000 as of press time.
Such major corrections are typical during miner stress events. Since 2011, there have been about 20 mining capitulations, most coinciding with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018 and December 2022.
Hash rate which is the total computational power securing the network is now rebounding, signaling renewed confidence among miners.
At the same time, bitcoin is now trading below its estimated average production cost of $66,000, a level often associated with deep value, according to checkonchain data. The last time this occurred was November 2022, when BTC bottomed near $15,500.