Bitcoin Adoption Hits New Record in 2026 Even as BTC Price Falls 50%

Bitcoin adoption by institutions, banks, companies, and governments reached record levels in 2025, even as the asset’s price dropped 50% from its all-time high in October, according to the financial company River Report (published February 24).

No Bear Market in Adoption

According to River analysts, while Bitcoin’s price has fallen significantly, adoption among institutions and users continues to rise, indicating that market prices may not fully reflect its growing usage.

Institutional investors, including businesses, governments, funds, and ETFs, collectively purchased 829,000 BTC in 2025. Registered investment advisers increased Bitcoin positions for eight consecutive quarters, investing around $1.5 billion in Bitcoin ETFs quarterly over the past two years.

River highlights that millions of private investors gained access to Bitcoin through brokerage accounts, pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate balance sheets. Companies became the largest buyers in 2025, with crypto-corporate entities accounting for most transactions, growing 2.5-fold over the year.

Simultaneously, 60% of the largest US banks began developing Bitcoin-based products. “Thanks to the favorable regulatory environment in the US, banks can now store Bitcoin and offer Bitcoin products to their customers,” the report notes.

Payments and Trade Turnover

The number of American merchants accepting Bitcoin grew significantly. Bitcoin payments tripled, while global Bitcoin usage in payments increased by 74%. Lightning Network transaction volume surged 300%, with River estimating that the network now processes over $1.1 billion per month.

State Players Join Bitcoin Adoption

For the first time in 2025, Bitcoin appeared in the reserves of five countries, including Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, the Czech Republic, Brazil, and Taiwan. River estimates that a total of 23 countries now hold Bitcoin through state mining, confiscations, or central bank deposits.

Declining Volatility

One key finding from River’s report is the decline in Bitcoin volatility to levels comparable with gold and the S&P 500. Analysts believe this indicates Bitcoin is being seen as a more mature asset. “As volatility declines, the barrier to entry for more conservative investors also decreases,” the report states. “Over time, this opens access to larger pools of capital.”

Looking Ahead

Bitcoin adoption in 2025 expanded across institutional savings, corporate balance sheets, government reserves, banking products, and payment infrastructure. River predicts this growth will continue and accelerate in the coming years. Historical patterns show that adoption and price often move on different timelines, as observed after the 2018 crash and the 2022 FTX collapse.

Metcalfe’s Law and Future Potential

Metcalfe’s Law suggests that a network’s value is proportional to the square of its users. If River’s adoption data is correct, Bitcoin’s potential value is building rapidly, leaving the question of when and under what macroeconomic conditions this will reflect in its price.