Billionaire investor Frank Giustra has warned that alternative assets are likely to surge in the event of U.S. military action against Iran.
In this line, he said oil and gold prices could rise under such circumstances, describing a potential strike as a major geopolitical escalation with far-reaching market consequences. Giustra noted in an interview with David Lin published on February 23.
Giustra, chief executive of Fiore Group, said a U.S. decision to attack Iran would likely trigger war and create significant global instability.
In that scenario, he expects oil prices to spike sharply amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, a region critical to global energy markets.
At the same time, he believes gold would rally strongly as investors seek traditional safe-haven assets during heightened uncertainty.
“If Trump decides to pull the trigger on Iran, that would be a major move. I’m not sure he’s going to, but if he makes that decision, this is going to be a possible war. You are going to see oil spike through the roof and gold’s going to go up,” he said.
His comments come amid rising geopolitical tensions and what he described as a broader transition in the global order.
Giustra argued that the world is shifting from a unipolar system dominated by a single hegemon to a more fragmented multipolar structure. Such historical transition periods, he said, are often turbulent and can lead to severe economic and political disruptions.
The remarks follow President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, in which he accused Iran of secretly reviving its nuclear program and advancing long-range missiles capable of reaching the U.S., despite earlier claims that prior strikes had destroyed its capabilities. He said diplomacy is preferred but warned that military action remains an option if talks fail.
Gold price outlook
Beyond the immediate geopolitical risks, Giustra also addressed gold’s recent performance. He said the metal had long lagged its underlying fundamentals, noting that it struggled for years to break decisively above its previous record high near $1,900 per ounce set in 2011.
Despite strong central bank buying and supportive macroeconomic conditions, gold remained range-bound for much of the past decade.
That changed after gold finally broke above $1,900, triggering a significant rally in recent months and establishing a new trading range.
However, Giustra stressed that the latest advance does not reflect the kind of parabolic surge typically seen at the end of a market cycle. In his view, gold is not near the end of its broader upward trend.
Gold has been among the best-performing assets in recent months, surpassing $5,000. As of press time, it was trading at $5,186, up nearly 20% year to date.
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